Stock Market Today: February 17th - 21st, 2025

Welcome to the trading week of February 17th!

S&P 500 closes little changed on Friday, but Wall Street notches weekly gains: Live updates



The S&P 500 was little changed on Friday in a pause from a strong performance this week, as investors weighed the latest on the global trade and inflation fronts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 165.35 points, or 0.37%, closing at 44,546.08. The S&P 500 ticked down 0.01% to 6,114.63, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.41% to 20,026.77.

The three major averages ended the week in the green, as sentiment improved after investors got more certainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, while new inflation data wound up being more constructive than first thought. Traders also shrugged off data released Friday that reflected a 0.9% slump in retail sales for January, worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% decline.

This week, the S&P 500 added about 1.5%, while the Dow advanced roughly 0.6%. The Nasdaq was 2.6% higher on the week.

A chunk of the week’s advance came Thursday after Trump signed a memorandum on laying out a plan to impose levies on goods from countries with duties on U.S. products, instead of implementing immediate tariffs.

Sentiment appeared to calm after January’s producer price index, as well as the consumer price index report released earlier this week, suggested a softer reading for the personal consumption expenditures price index. The PCE price index, which is due later this month, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

“It looks like the economy and inflation aren’t runaway accelerating, causing pressure on rates,” said Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. He said the recent move downward in the 10-year Treasury yield is “improving breadth, but it’s also lifting asset prices on the equity side because of that correlation dynamic.”

The 10-year Treasury yield continued to slide on Friday, recently dropping nearly 5 basis points lower to 4.478%.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

 

Longer-Term Weakness on Tuesday after Presidents’ Day Returns

Following a six-year streak of strength from 2012 to 2017, the market appears to have returned to its longer-term trading pattern on the Tuesday following the long Presidents’ Day holiday weekend. S&P 500 has been the weakest on Tuesday, down 6 of the last 7 with an average loss of –0.63%. DJIA and NASDAQ have one additional positive day, but their respective average losses exceed S&P 500 at –0.71% and –0.69%.

Going back to 1990, Tuesday after Presidents’ Day has been strongest for the S&P 500 with 18 gains and 17 losses with a median gain of 0.07% but with an average loss of –0.30%. DJIA is slightly weaker on the Tuesday after, but NASDAQ is a net loser down 22 of 35 years with an average loss of –0.57% and a median loss of –0.34%.

Wednesday is all red for all three major averages. NASDAQ and S&P 500 have more losses, but DJIA is a loser as well. On the Wednesday after the Presidents’ Day holiday DJIA is down 18 of 35 with an average loss of –0.10% and a median decline of –0.10%. S&P 500 is down 21 of 35, average –0.07%, median –0.10% and NASDAQ is down 20 of 35, average –0.11%, median –0.18%.

DC, We Have a Problem


Over the last two years, markets have been able to tune out a pretty dour national mood, with the S&P 500 gaining 25%+ in 2023 and 2024. In fact, real GDP growth clocked in at 2.9% annualized over the last two years, above the pre-pandemic trend. Sentiment was downbeat, but this didn’t really crimp consumer spending. In our 2025 Outlook, we wrote that we expected this momentum to continue into 2025, with a potential boost coming from a turn in the national mood, i.e. “Animal Spirits.” We weren’t exactly calling for unleashing of these animal spirits but saw an opportunity for it to materialize. Well, we’re now close to Valentine’s Day, and animal spirits are yet to show up. Ryan wrote about a few market-based indicators that are flashing a yellow sign (beyond tariffs and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl!). Beyond those, the surveys are also not showing a pickup in confidence.

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment pulled back over 3 points in February, falling to 67.8. That’s the lowest level since last August, and more than reverses the post-election bounce. The index is currently sitting well below the lows we saw during the height of the pandemic in April – May 2020. Another consumer confidence measure released by the Conference Board tells the same story. We have yet to get updated February numbers, but it fell 5.4 points in January to 104.1, the lowest level since last September.



Consumer expectations of their financial situation have risen significantly over the past year, but they’re still well below what we saw pre-pandemic and we haven’t seen a post-election surge in optimism about the future. Via a household survey from the New York Federal Reserve:

• 6% of respondents expect finances to be “somewhat better off” or “much better off” a year from now — higher than 34.2% a year ago, but below the 42.9% in February 2020.
• 21% expect finances to be “somewhat worse off” or “much worse off” a year from now — down from 23.5% a year ago, but well above the 10.5% in February 2020.
• The difference between the two was 15.6%-points — better than the 10.6%-point difference a year ago, but well off the 32.4%-point difference in February 2020.

Expectations appear to have plateaued, and simply put, that’s not great for animal spirits.



It looks like uncertainty over regulations and tariffs are hitting business confidence and outlooks as well. 146 out of 302 S&P 500 companies have referenced tariffs in their earnings calls so far, the most since Q2 2019. Most of them have yet to quantify the impact of it in their guidance, but that underlines the uncertainty, since we don’t have much clarity around tariffs. Half of the companies that reported also brought up currency issues in their earnings calls, saying that a strong dollar is putting pressure on overseas revenues (40% of S&P 500 company revenues originate outside the US). This is a risk we highlighted in our Outlook, i.e. a strong dollar (on the back of elevated rates and tariff rates) threatening S&P 500 profits.

A recent WSJ piece highlighted that tariff news (and whipsaws) have hit business leaders’ confidence. Priorities have shifted now to navigating tariffs and other policy issues, including settling new supply routes. They have to decide whether or not to raise prices, and remember, all this is before we have any idea of eventual policy that will be implemented (or lack thereof).

Uh, Oh Inflation
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January, above expectations, partly driven by a massive 15% increase in egg prices in just one month. Egg prices are up a whopping 53% since last year, thanks to a worsening bird flu situation. Even Waffle House went so far as to explicitly add an egg price surcharge of 50 cents on their menus. Energy prices have also crept higher, rising 1.1% in January. It’s still up just 1% since last year (gas prices are actually slightly lower), but households are never happy when energy prices go up, along with food prices.



Consumer expectations of inflation, as measured by the frequently cited University of Michigan survey, surged in February. One year ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023 and only the fifth time in 14 years we’ve seen such a large 1-month increase. Five-year ahead expectations didn’t see a similar surge, rising from 3.2% to 3.3%, but even that is well above levels we saw before the pandemic.

Now one big issue with this survey is that it’s “contaminated” by politics. If you separate 1-year ahead expectations of inflation by party affiliation, this is what it shows:

• Democrats: 5.1% (up from 1.5% in October)
• Republicans: 0.0% (down from 3.6% in October)

In short, Democrats are expecting a big surge in inflation, whereas Republicans appear to be expecting a deflationary recession, which would be the scenario under which inflation hits 0% (though people who answer the survey probably don’t realize it’s an implied recession call).

Expectations for independents may hold a bit more signal here. They expect 1-year ahead inflation to be 3.7%, the highest level in a year. Usually, you see this kind of move only when gas prices surge, but nationwide average gas prices have risen just 10 cents to $3.14 since the beginning of the year. More likely, it’s the uncertainty about tariffs.



At the same time, a more robust survey from the New York Federal Reserve shows a more benign picture of inflation expectations. The sample size for this survey is larger, amongst other robust methodology choices. This survey showed that median 1-year and 3-year ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3%. That’s not too far above what we saw in 2019 (when it averaged about 2.5%). Still, things are on the upper edge of what would likely be comfortable for the Federal Reserve, which pays close attention to inflation expectations and see it as a key potential driver of future inflation.



Market expectations of short-term inflation expectations have also been rising recently. 1-year ahead inflation expectations have moved up to 2.8%, the highest since March 2023. I also calculated 1-year/1-year forward inflation expectations, which is inflation expected in the second year from now (roughly 2026). That’s risen to 2.7%, the highest since November 2022. “Normal” levels, at least going back pre-pandemic levels, were around 2.2-2.3%. Again, as I pointed out above, this is not because of higher oil prices (which have hovered in a fairly tight range recently). Instead, this is likely where the tariff uncertainty is being manifested. Interestingly, we didn’t see a similar increase in 2018 – 2019 amid the trade war, but this time around markets may be sensitive to the fact that we’re in a generally higher inflationary regime.



The good news is that longer-term inflation expectations, which is what the Fed cares more about, are consistent with their 2% target, though embedded into these is the expectation that the Fed will have to keep rates higher for longer. And that gets to the January CPI report, which was hot across the board on both headline and core measures (which excludes food and energy). Yet, the big picture is that inflation remains elevated due to lagged shelter and motor vehicle insurance data. Within shelter, it’s really owner’s equivalent rent (OER) that is problematic (the ”implied rent” that homeowners pay, which is based on market rents rather than home prices). OER makes up a big part of the CPI basket, as you can see in the table below, and it’s adding 0.44%-points to excess CPI and 0.54%-points to excess core CPI (excess relative to December 2019). Motor vehicle insurance is adding the rest of what’s excess for both headline and core CPI, while all the remaining categories are neutral.



We’re going to just have to wait for the disinflationary housing trends that show up in more real-time private measures be reflected in the official data. The problem is that this is going to keep the Fed on hold too, as they wait for official inflation data to get closer to their target. Again, the tariff situation only adds to this sense of uncertainty. Markets now expect the first rate cut only in July, with just about coin toss odds for a second cut in 2025. That’s still better than expectations for no cuts at all in 2025, but if the markets start to sniff out that no cuts are forthcoming in 2025, expect more volatility.

All in all, the mood seems dour, whether for consumers, businesses, or even at the Fed. That’s not what we need for a lift in animal spirits. It doesn’t mean the economy will go into a recession — we still believe underlying strengths will overcome some of these headwinds. But it could be the difference between an ok year versus a great year. And it’s not over yet by any means. Positive news on the tariff side, plus progress on a tax bill in Congress, could lift spirits. But that needs to happen first.

Friday Before Presidents’ Day Weekend: S&P 500 Up 10 of Last 14

Trading before Presidents’ Day Weekend used to be horrible. However, there has been a noticeable improvement over the last 14 years. The longer-term track record of the market’s performance ahead of Presidents’ Day weekend from 1990 through 2010, shows DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ suffered numerous and sizable declines especially on Friday. However, more recently, since 2011, the Friday before Presidents’ Day has been improving (shaded in light grey in table below). DJIA on Friday has the best record over the last 14 years, up 11 times with an average gain of 0.18%. S&P 500 has been nearly as strong, up 10 times, with an average gain of 0.19%.

Five Worries We Have That Aren’t Tariffs


“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” -Dr. Seuss

Yes, we’ve remained in the bullish camp for more than two years now and continue to expect 2025 to see stock gains between 12-15%, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have worries. Of course, like everyone else, tariffs are indeed a big worry (with a huge amount of uncertainty), but we’ve spent enough time on those over the past week and today I’ll go over a few other worries that I’m watching closely.

Year Three of a Bull Market
We noted this in 2025 Outlook: Animal Spirits. Stocks usually see huge gains the first two years of a bull market (just like this bull market did) and the third year can be more choppy and frustrating. Although we expect stocks to do much better than the average third year gain of 2.1%, this is still something to consider in 2025 as a potential issue. End of the day, after the huge gains we saw two years off of the October 2022 lows, it would be perfectly normal to see some consolidation at some point in 2025.



The Philly Curse
This is purely fun, but when a team from the City of Brotherly Love wins a World Series or Super Bowl, very bad things are around the corner.



Lagging Advance/Decline Ratios
An advance/decline (A/D) ratio is simply a cumulative tally of how many stocks go up or down each day on a specific exchange. The way I learned it many years ago was breadth leads price. When A/D lines make new highs, it suggests the indexes will likely continue a bullish phase. We saw A/D lines break down well ahead of the tech bubble bursting 25 years ago and again before the Great Financial Crisis, suggesting there indeed was deterioration under the surface.

Yes, we have many stocks doing well this year (even international and emerging markets are joining the party), but one worry I have is various A/D lines have yet to breakout to new highs. There is still time here, but I’d classify this as a yellow flag for the bulls right now. Should these improve and eventually breakout (like I predict), then the bull would be back in a big way. Here’s a nice chart my friend Cam Hui shared recently showing exactly what I mean.



Year of the Snake
Another fun one (and please don’t ever invest based on this) is stocks have done quite poorly in The Year of the Snake, which is exactly the Chinese zodiac sign for 2025. Similar to when Philly wins something, this is totally random, but it is interesting.



The December Low Indicator
Last and certainly not least, here’s one of my favorite indicators. This is called the December Low Indicator and it is fairly straightforward. When the S&P 500 doesn’t close beneath the December low close in the first quarter, good things have tended to happen the rest of the year. The opposite, of course, is when the December lows are violated in the first quarter. To refresh your memory, the past two years they didn’t break the December low and those were great years, while a break in early 2022 was one subtle clue that the odds were elevated that the rest of the year could be dicey. Well, sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but stocks indeed broke their December low about a month ago.

Interestingly, since 1950, stocks held above the December lows 38 times while they broke the lows 37 times. Talk about even-steven. Those are some pretty big sample sizes, and sure enough, the takeaway from the historical results are very clear.

Those 38 times the December lows held? The full year was up an incredible 36 times and up an average of 18.9%. The times it failed? The full year was down 0.2% on average and higher less than a coin flip.



If you want to investigate things more closely, here are all 38 times the S&P 500 held above the December lows. Hard to look at this any other way than in the years this has happened, it was a major clue the bull was alive and well.



Here’s the other side to things and unfortunately where things stand in 2025. What happened when the December low was violated? Once again, the full year returns were plain and simple much weaker. Just a quick glance and some of the worst years ever saw the December lows broken. Years like ’73, ’74, the tech bubble, ’08, and ’22 all made this infamous list. This doesn’t mean 2025 will be like those years. Still, this is one thing that undoubtedly is in my worry column.



So there you have it, some worries I have that have nothing to do with tariffs. I’ll be honest, it was nice not to talk about tariffs for a change.

Usual February Weak Trading

Stocks are suffering from typical midwinter struggles. The market tends to rally the first half of February, but gains tend to fade after mid-month, and even sooner in post-election years.

Small Business Sentiment Wild Ride
Tue, Feb 11, 2025

This morning was light for economic data with the only release of note being the NFIB's Small Business Optimism index. The headline number was expected to pull back following the post election surge, but the decline was larger than expected as it came in at 102.8 versus forecasts of 104.7. That being said, as shown in the chart below, small business sentiment is still up huge since last November's election.



In the table below, we show the readings across the report's sub-indices for January and December, the month over month change, and how those all rank as a percentile of all periods. As shown, the Optimism Index's decline in January was actually quite large falling in the bottom decile of all months' moves. Playing into that were bottom decile declines in a number of inputs like: inventory plans, expected credit conditions, viewing now as a good time to expand, and capital outlay plans. For that last category, the 7-point drop was actually a record single month decline. That is also only one indicator of a number that point to softening capex and labor market conditions which we discussed in today's Morning Lineup.



As shown in the table above, breadth in January was weak on the whole. For all categories (both inputs and non-inputs for the headline index), there were ten indices that fell month over month versus six that rose while another two were unchanged. Looking at the decliners, most of the categories are expectation or plans based. Contrary to that weakness in soft data, hard data indices like actual earnings and employment changes were generally the ones that improved versus December.

In the charts below, we create indices tracking the strength of hard and soft data categories in the report. Following the election, the soft data index soared as expectations and optimism massively improved given small business sentiment has a tendency to favor Republicans. The historically strong readings in that index left more muted hard data in the dust. With that said, January saw the soft data index revert lower although it is still at solid levels in the 63rd percentile of readings. Meanwhile, hard data has continued to improve and is now at the highest level since September 2023.



Again, although the January report showed some moderation in small business optimism, reporting firms are still extremely optimistic. For example, the index of Outlook for General Business Conditions pulled back but remains in the top 2% of readings in the survey's history. Likewise, the share of respondents reporting now as a good time to expand is around some of the highest levels of the past few years.



The NFIB offers a breakdown of reasons given for expansion outlooks. As shown in the second chart below, the strength in positive expansion outlooks has been largely driven by politics. Similarly, those giving uncertain outlooks have less frequently been pointing the finger at politics, however, there was an identical share in January that said costs of expansion was the reason for uncertainty. Unchanged at 7%, that was the highest reading since February 2020. Perhaps most notably, for those reporting an uncertain outlook, a record 22% share blamed economic conditions.



As much as a shifting political landscape has benefitted small business optimism, January did also see an interesting spike higher in the percentage of businesses reporting taxes and government red tape as their biggest issues as the threat of tariffs were quickly introduced. That reading rose to 27% of responses which was the highest since November 2021.



One other indication that Trump's tariff plans have caused some trepidation among small businesses is the Economic Policy Uncertainty index. As shown below, during election years it is normal for this index to rise sharply. This most recent election was a prime example with the largest election year jump to date. While things moderated significantly in the wake of the election with a 24 point decline from the October report through December (also a record for all prior election years), the most recent reading for January showed a 14 point month over month rebound. Not only is that the largest jump of any inauguration month, but it is also the largest month over month increase in the index's history.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 2.14.25-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 2.14.25-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for February 14th, 2025
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2/16/25
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StockBoarders! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StockBoards Weekly Stock Picking Contest & S&P Sentiment Poll (2/17-2/21) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily S&P Sentiment Poll for Tuesday (2/18) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Tuesday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($BABA $ANET $CVNA $WMT $OXY $BIDU $WGS $RIG $MELI $ETSY $RIVN $TOST $AXSM $ENVX $U $XYZ $SEDG $NE $NEM $W $GRMN $DVN $MDT $CAKE $UFPI $TOL $JELD $ETR $WIX $BMRN $HUN $INOD $HALO $MTDR $CCJ $BAX $BKNG $BHC $EXAS $FLR $FVRR $GLBE $TECK $SHAK $UIS $TXRH $WSO $CE $ADI $NICE)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning February 17th, 2025 <-- click there to view!

 

hope everyone had a nice relaxing 3-day weekend!

hey if you guys won't mind, please have the following link bookmarked to your web favorites somewhere.

https://stockchat.org

that link there is going to act as a secondary link for us to use for this site. if you're wondering why the need for a second link, it's mostly because of potential DNS issues down the road. not that i'm anticipating such issues to occur, but in the event that our main link is inaccessible due to DNS issues.

that second link should always work for us no matter what. but if that one is also down then you can just assume that the overall server is down.

i just wanna make sure that we are covered pretty good here with this site, and have a link to fall back on in the event that the main one is down for any reason.

eventually i'll need to find a way to have my dns provider auto update the server's ip address when/if it changes. but for now, we'll just use that secondary link.

a nice and easy name to remember i hope

 

Top of the morning StockBoarders! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, February the 18th, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - Equities and Yields Trading Higher
Tue, Feb 18, 2025

After a mixed session overnight in Asia, European equities are trading modestly higher this morning, and that follows a gain of over 0.5% for the STOXX 600 on Monday while US markets were closed. Here in the US, equity futures are looking to start the short week positively. The S&P 500 is indicated to open 0.4% higher while Nasdaq 100 futures are looking at gains of just about 0.5%. Yields are also higher as the 10-year is modestly back above 4.5%.

The economic calendar is on the quiet side this morning with the only two reports of note being Empire Manufacturing at 8:30 and the NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Index at 10 AM. Both reports are forecast to improve from last month’s reading, but they’re also forecast to remain in contraction territory. For the remainder of the week, the calendar is relatively busy with notable reports including Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the final read on UMich Consumer Sentiment on Friday. That last report will be notable as the preliminary report released earlier this month showed a major skew in inflation expectations between Democrats and Republicans.

After closing out the prior week just south of 4.5% on February 7th, the 10-year US Treasury yield exploded higher with sound and fury in the first three days of last week. It rose as high as 4.66% on Wednesday after the stronger-than-expected January CPI report. Just as it looked like the early January highs were due for a test, though, on Thursday and Friday, yields reversed lower and more than erased the gains from the first three days. By Friday’s close and heading into the three-day weekend, the big moves from earlier in the week had nothing to show for themselves, and the 10-yield finished the week lower than it started below 4.48%. Just when you think the market is going to go one way, it does its best to keep you on your toes (or knock you off them depending on your perspective).

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, February 18th, 2025.

 

Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under an hour from the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, February the 19th, 2025!