Welcome to the trading week of July 7th! Dow jumps more than 300 points, S&P 500 sets new record after strong June jobs report: Live updates U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting fresh record highs, after a better-than-expected jobs report fueled optimism the U.S. economy was hanging tough despite fast-changing trade policy and geopolitics. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 344.11 points, or 0.77%, settling at 44,828.53. The S&P 500 added 0.83% to close at 6,279.35, while the Nasdaq gained 1.02% and ended at 20,601.10. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite also closed at records. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. That’s above the Dow Jones forecast from economists for 110,000 and the upwardly revised 144,000 in May. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%, while economists had projected an increase to 4.3%. The strong jobs report also spurred a spike in Treasury yields and reduced expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in a roughly 95% chance that the central bank will hold rates steady at its meeting later this month, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool. “The biggest implication from the employment report would seem to be there’s no way the Fed’s cutting rates in July, and it’s a question mark as to whether rates are cut at all this year,” Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management, said in an interview with CNBC. Thursday’s report comes a day after ADP released data showing that private payrolls decreased by 33,000 last month, raising fears that perhaps the economy was starting to stumble under the weight of rapid policy changes out of Washington. Thursday’s official government data knocked down that notion. Meanwhile, after President Donald Trump announced the U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement Wednesday, investors eagerly awaited any potential future deal announcements as the president’s early July deadline on his 90-day tariff pause approaches next week. While the market trading at all-time high levels leaves it open to downside, especially if Trump chooses to be “really tough” in negotiations, Ellerbroek believes the market is ultimately taking a more optimistic view. “We will see a real tariff impact for a lot of businesses, but the market is going to digest that without too much trouble,” he also said. Investors are also following along the progress on Trump’s tax megabill, which finally passed the Senate Tuesday and has since returned to the House. The bill is now headed for a final vote after the Republican-controlled House advanced the legislation Thursday. Thursday was a shortened trading session, with the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq closing at 1 p.m. ET. U.S. markets are closed on Friday for Independence Day. All three major U.S. averages closed out the week in positive territory. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up 1.7% and 1.6% week to date, respectively, while the Dow posted a 2.3% gain for the period. This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: S&P Sectors End of Week: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets End of Week: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: (T.B.A.)
Should We Expect Fireworks in July? “The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it.” Michelangelo What a wild ride 2025 has been and it is only halfway over! After being down nearly 20% at the lows in April, stocks have staged one of the largest reversals ever and on Friday moved back to new highs for the first time since February 19. We’ve been pounding the table since late April that a big rally was likely, but even we’ve been surprised at how quickly new highs are here, but we aren’t complaining. Many have what we call a fear of heights when it comes to new highs. New highs are one of those things that might seem scary but aren’t nearly as scary in reality. Kind of like getting blood drawn. I hate it and get all worked up, then it is quickly over and I wonder why I was so worried. Friday marked the 1,245th new all-time high for the S&P 500 since 1957 (when it became 500 stocks). This means there’s a new high about 7.2% of all days or once every 14 trading days. That is pretty much a new high every three weeks, give or take, and they tend to come in rough clusters that can last years or even decades. In other words, there are always worries out there and reasons to be fearful, but new highs just aren’t one of them. As we show below, new highs happen way more than you probably realize and they are perfectly normal. Yes, someday we will see a major peak in stocks and it’ll be the last new high for a long while, but the good news is we don’t think that day is today. Historically, July Is a Strong Month After gaining nearly 6% in May, for the best May since 1990, the S&P 500 is following it up with a very solid June (with one day to go the index is up more than 4%). The good news is July tends to be a very strong month for stocks and we don’t think this year will be any different, as this surprise summer rally continues. In fact, July is the very best month of the year in a post-election year, the second best the past 10 years, and again the best over the past 20 years. Adding to the fun, July has been higher an incredible 10 years in a row, only one away from tying the longest July win streak ever from the ‘40s and ‘50s. What About the Rest of the Year? What caught our attention is the month of June historically hasn’t been very strong, but neither has May for that matter. So what has happened when both of these historically weak months are in the green (like 2025)? The answer is good things for the bulls. July actually does better when May and June are higher, but it is the final six months that really stand out, as these months have finished higher an incredible 15 out of the past 16 times and up nearly 9% on average (in half a year). The bottom line, we see reasons to expect this bull market to continue and the strength the last two months only further confirms this. Thank you for reading and we want to wish everyone a happy and safe July 4th holiday week! The Energy Behind Artificial Intelligence The emergence of Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) has triggered one of the largest growth spurts in US electricity demand in decades. Early indicators show some impacts of this already as grid electricity prices are increasing, signaling that electricity demand is growing faster than supply. While the underlying technologies powering AI systems are expected to become significantly more energy-efficient over time, the sheer scale and pace of AI adoption suggest that overall electricity generation will need to increase. New reports suggest that traditional forms of electricity, such as fossil fuels and renewables, may play a larger role in meeting this demand than frontier sources of electricity such as nuclear. Electricity Prices Rise My colleague Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategy, has highlighted the persistent inflation in electricity prices. Shown below, the annual rate of electricity price increases has recently hovered between 2% and 5%—a marked rise from the pre-pandemic range of flat to 2%. This sustained elevation is one of the clearest indicators that electricity demand is growing faster than supply. The emergence of AI is certainly a part of the growth of energy demand. Offsetting this though is the fact that AI’s main systems have shown a history of becoming more efficient over time. Although the introduction of AI caused a large step-function change in energy demand, more efficient systems may provide downward pressure on electricity demand growth over time. Nvidia’s Exponential Efficiency Gains Technological progress, particularly in semiconductor development, continues to drive improvements in energy efficiency. Nvidia’s latest generation of chips, known as ‘Blackwell,’ deliver nearly 40x more token output than their previous generation, referred to as ‘Data Center Productivity’ in the table below. I wrote about this breakthrough recently and it reflects a broader phenomenon: as AI usage increases, the output-per-watt from data centers is also rising sharply. Put simply, today’s AI is likely to be the least energy efficient version we’ll ever use. Still, More Energy Will Be Needed Even when accounting for these efficiency gains, electricity demand is expected to grow. Estimates of the growth rate vary widely, but a recent report from RMI1 estimates the US will need to grow its electricity generation by a total of 18% over the next decade, or about 1.6% annually. In my view, that’s both a rationally sound estimate and a feasible undertaking. Initial signs point to combined cycle gas-turbines as early beneficiaries of this demand, and there’s a potential for ‘renewables plus storage’ systems to gain share. Lazard’s 2025 Levelized Cost of Energy (“LCOE”)2 report shows gas turbines offering the lowest overall cost of generation. Turbine manufacturers, such as GE Vernova, have been early winners of this demand for electricity generation. As shown in the chart below, GE Vernova’s equipment revenue backlog has grown nearly 29% over the past two years and speaks to the influx of orders the company has received to meet this demand. Solar and wind when paired with storage are a close second choice as the cost of these systems decline. Lazard’s report went on to show that the per-watt cost for utility-scale solar deployments decreased 4% year over year, which was the steepest decline in costs amongst the generation sources researched2. Solar panel manufacturers, such as First Solar, have iterated panel designs and technology to better harness this source of energy. These cost reductions, paired with the greater need for electricity, have allowed First Solar to increase sales by nearly 45% over the last three years. Analysts polled by FactSet expect even stronger growth with current estimates showing First Solar may grow revenue another 60% over the next three years (data as of 6/26/2025). The growth in electricity demand is largely being met by more traditional forms of energy generation as well as renewables plus storage where viable. More frontier forms of energy generation, such as nuclear, remain a questionable opportunity. Recent U.S. nuclear project histories raise serious concerns amidst cost and time overruns. NuScale in 2015 attempted to develop a 720 megawatt small module reactor (“SMR”) and estimated costs to be roughly $3.1 billion3. In 2021, the company re-estimated that costs would be closer to $9.3 billion (a 3x overrun) and the project was scrapped3. Separately, the Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia did successfully bring online their Plant Vogtle recently. However, total costs were nearly $34 billion as compared to $14 billion initially expected and the units entered service seven years later than expected4. These anecdotes aren’t to say nuclear generation is impossible given the current landscape but should illustrate the conundrum facing electricity seekers. Utility owners face a tradeoff between nuclear projects potentially incurring unexpected deviations that lead to higher costs over the lifetime of the plant or sticking with more proven sources that deliver modest outcomes. There’s unlikely to be a perfect solution, but more conventional forms of electricity have seen the most success so far. AI services continue to proliferate in our lives. The impact of these services is already being felt as grid electricity prices rise, at least due in part to this. While today’s AI is likely to be the most power-hungry form we ever use, the net load growth of roughly 1.6% annually will need to be met. Proven forms of electricity, such as gas and renewables, are currently the most viable paths forward. Meanwhile, nuclear remains full of potential but burdened by uncertainty and delays. Perhaps AI itself can deliver breakthroughs in this area. For now, AI looks like it will be powered by more stable sources. Bullish Before July 4th, Bearish After Trading the three days ahead of the July 4th Independence Day holiday has historically been stronger than the days after the holiday. Trading on the day before and after the holiday is often lackluster. Volume tends to decline on either side of the holiday as vacations begin early and/or finish late. Since 1980, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have recorded net losses on the day after. This has become more pronounced in recent years and was the case again last year. However, over the past thirteen years since 2011, trading after Independence Day has softened notably. DJIA has declined ten times in 14 years on the day after. S&P 500 has slipped eight times. Average performance remains fractionally positive. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have more up days after the 4th but R2K averages losses the two days after the 4th. Most Bullish Day of Year! 1st Day July S&P 500 Up 14 Straight July’s first trading day is the third best performing first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 1729.68 points since 1998. Over the past 21 years, DJIA’s first trading day of July has produced gains 81.0% of the time with an average advance of 0.35%. S&P 500 has advanced 90.5% of the time (average gain 0.44%) since 2004 and has been up 14 straight years in a row on the first trading day of July. NASDAQ has been similarly bullish advancing 85.7% of the time (0.50% average gain). No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength, which supports the case for declaring the first trading day of July the most consistently bullish day of the year over the past 21 years. Although, the third from last day of August is rising to challenge for this title.
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024- S&P sectors for the past week-
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 7.3.25- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 7.3.25-
Stock Market Analysis Video for July 3rd, 2025 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7/6/25 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
StocksForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== StocksForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (7/7-7/11) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead! Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (7/7) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($DAL $PENG $LEVI $CAG $KRUS $PSMT $WDFC $SAR $BYRN $AZZ $SMPL $HELE $AEHR $ETWO $NTIC $VIST $BSET) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning July 7th, 2025 <-- click there to view!
Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, July the 7th, 2025!
Morning Lineup - 7/7/25 - Easing Back into Things Mon, Jul 7, 2025 Investors are being eased back into the market this morning, with futures showing modest losses after a more significant decline overnight. The market may be open, but with no economic or earnings reports on the calendar, things are relatively quiet to kick off the new week. That’s generally the case for the rest of the week too, with very few reports on the calendar in the next four trading days. That will leave plenty of time for investors to focus on trade, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says to expect several announcements in the next two days, and for those that don’t make a deal by August 1st, tariffs on their exports to the US will go back to the levels announced on April 2nd The long holiday weekend is over, and it’s time for investors to get back to business as Q2 earnings season is right around the corner, and the tariff situation is likely to become more concrete. One thing bulls have going for them heading into this week is the seasonal calendar. Since WWII, the S&P 500’s median performance during the week after the July 4th holiday week has been a gain of 0.47% with positive returns 57.5% of the time. More recently, performance has been even stronger with a median gain of 1.14% and positive returns 70% of the time.
Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, July 7th, 2025.
