Stock Market Today: June 2nd - 6th, 2025

Welcome to the trading week of June 2nd!

S&P 500 is flat to close out a 6% May gain as investors continue to look past trade policy confusion



The S&P 500 was little changed on Friday to close out a big winning month, as investors shook off trade war fears after President Donald Trump said China violated its preliminary trade agreement.

The broad index inched down by 0.01% to end at 5,911.69. The Nasdaq Composite slid 0.32% to 19,113.77, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 54.34 points, or 0.13%, to finish at 42,270.07.

Friday’s trading session marked the end of a strong May trading month, with a chunk of the rally following a trade deal announcement between the U.S. and UK. Investors hoped that could pave the way for more agreements with other countries facing duties.

The S&P 500 added 6.2% this month, while the Nasdaq surged 9.6% in that time. Both notched their best months since November 2023. The 30-stock Dow has gained 3.9% on the month.

For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 1.9%, while the 30-stock Dow rose 1.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 2%.

Stocks initially tumbled in Friday’s session after Trump said in a social media post that China “violated” its current trade agreement with the U.S. Later in the trading day, a Bloomberg report, citing people familiar, said the administration plans to broaden restrictions on China’s tech sector.

That came after Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a Fox News interview that U.S.-China trade talks “are a bit stalled.” Investors are now wondering if, or when, a long-term agreement between China and the U.S. can be reached.

The administration has found its contentious plan for broad and steep levies in legal limbo. Legal concerns hit a boiling point after the Court of International Trade on Wednesday night halted the majority of Trump’s tariffs.

However, an appeals court granted a stay on Thursday afternoon, allowing the duties to remain in place until next week. The Trump administration considered using a provision of the Trade Act of 1974 to implement tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The legal battle around tariffs offers the latest dose of uncertainty for what was already an uneasy market. Investors have contended with macroeconomic concerns tied to tariffs and worry that the shakeup to U.S. trade policy could cause a recession.

“It’s an awkward time,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management. “If you’re an investor, you want to bet on good earnings, not good tweets about tariffs.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

 

Why A Strong May Could Have Bulls Smiling


“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Mark Twain

So much for Sell in May! With a day to go, we are looking at potentially the best month of May for the S&P 500 in 35 years. As we noted at the start of the month, the odds favored a big rally in May and fortunately that has played out so far. Many were worried that stocks were green in 11 of the past 12 years, but it looks like history rhymed once again, to quote Mr. Twain.



What now? Well, the good news is few months are better for the bulls than a strong month of May. We looked at all 12 months and what happened after a 5% monthly gain. Well, May has never been lower a year later and up nearly 20% on average, something for the bulls to smile about for sure! Additionally, a year after any 5% monthly gain saw stocks up 13.7% on average and higher more than 84% of the time.



Here are the six times the S&P 500 gained at least 5% in May and what happened next. You can see stronger returns across the board and a year later up double digits five of six times. Not bad. A 5% gain in May also improves the picture for the historically weak month of June. After a big May gain, June is higher five out of six times and up 1.2% versus and average June return of 0.7%.



Lastly, we’ve noted many times how historically bearish sentiment was last month and why from a contrarian point of view that could be quite bullish. Well, better news on trade and a very strong earnings season helped us bounce back at a historic pace. Whereas even the biggest bulls were calling for a recession or drastically cutting their S&P 500 targets back in April, we’ve definitely seen a shift in sentiment after the nearly 20% rally off of the April lows.

Just one such example: after 15 consecutive weeks, the AAII Sentiment Survey finally had more bulls than bears last week. We looked at what happened after previous long streaks ended and the good news is the bulls remained in control. This is a fun one, as seven of eight times saw stocks up at least double digits. The one time it didn’t work? Yep, 2008 and a total market crash. So there is something for everyone here, but we don’t see any reason to see a once-a-lifetime crisis this time around and we’d file this under the ‘reasons to remain bullish’ category.

RIP Liberation Day?


Well, this came out of the blue, but a U.S. court essentially cancelled the tariffs that set off a global trade war (technically paused until July).

The US Court of International Trade (USCIT) struck down all of the “IEEPA” tariffs imposed by President Trump. IEEPA is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act that was passed in 1977, and allows the President to “regulate international commerce” after declaring a national emergency. It was under IEEPA authority that the President imposed the following tariffs

• China, Mexico, Canada tariffs in response to Fentanyl trafficking
• Liberation Day (April 2nd) “reciprocal” tariffs imposed in response to “they’re ripping us off because of trade surpluses”

Here’s a handy table from the Tax Foundation



The court’s 3-judge panel unanimously ruled that the President exceeded IEEPA authority, and that the Act does not grant “unbounded tariff authority”. Specifically, they said the emergencies used to justify the tariffs were not valid. The immigration/fentanyl tariffs imposed on Canada, China, and Mexico do not “deal with” the emergency cited by the administration. And chronic trade deficits used to justify the Liberation Day tariffs do not meet the test of an “unusual and extraordinary” threat.

Of course, the administration has already appealed, and ultimately it’s going to come down to the Supreme Court. So, it’s anyone’s guess whether this ruling is reversed or not.

Tariffs Aren’t Going Away for Good
The court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs would lower US average tariff rates by about 10%-points, leaving behind tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum after everything we’ve seen over the past four months.



At the same time, the ruling doesn’t mean the President cannot impose tariffs anymore. He can, but he’ll have to use other authority.

In fact, the court directed the President to use non-emergency authority in “Section 122” to respond to an imbalance in trade that results in a trade deficit. However, this authority is much more limited. Under it, the President can impose tariffs of as much as 15 percent for up to 150 days against one or more countries that have “large and serious” balance-of-payment surpluses with the US. After 150 days, it’ll have to be authorized by Congress.

The President can always use other authority to impose tariffs – there’s an entire number soup of tariff-related sections for this

• Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974) – for retaliatory tariffs on unfair trade practices
• Section 232 (Trade Expansion Act of 1962) – for national security-based tariffs
• Section 201 Trade Act of 1974) – for safeguard measures

In fact, these are the authorities the President used during the 2018 trade war (with tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum, washing machines, solar panels, and a broad array of Chinese imports).

Even this time around, the Trump administration is using the national security-based Section 232 authority for implementing sectoral tariffs, including steel and aluminum, autos, pharmaceuticals, chips, electronics, lumber, etc. There’s less legal uncertainty related to the use of Section 232 tariffs, and we could see the President starting to refocus on these. Though these do require an investigation that could take up to nine months.

The President could also direct the US Trade Representative to launch “Section 301 investigations” on key trading partners. Now, this is a more drawn-out process and would probably take months to be fully completed. At the same time, the President has no limit on the level or duration of these tariffs.

There is also something called Section 338 authority. It’s from the Smoot-Hawley 1930 Tariff Act and allows the President to impose “proportionate” retaliatory tariffs on imports from a country that is imposing unreasonable tariffs and restrictions on US goods, or discriminating against the US. It’s not been used since WWII, since new trade laws (like Section 301) were authorized. But the Trump administration is likely looking at this authority at this very moment.

Court Ruling is a Big Deal But It May Just Prolong Uncertainty
At the end of the day, the big difference between IEEPA and these tools is that the latter impose significant procedural hurdles. Which is why the court ruling could be a fundamental blow to the Trump agenda. Not least because it also rules out the use of a tariff dial by the President during negotiations, allowing Trump to ratchet tariffs up and down by Oval Office (or Truth Social) pronouncement.

We’re also unlikely to see any trade deals before July. The court ruling will probably shift other countries approach to trade negotiations with the US. trade deals take a lot of time anyway, but expect most countries, if not all, to start dragging their feet. Even the UK, which is the only country that reached any sort of “trade deal” with the US recently is in a better position – they no longer face the 10% baseline tariff, and they have the option of slow walking finalization of their proposals to the US side (like opening up their market to US ethanol and hormone free beef produced in the US).

Ultimately, the tariff mess, and ongoing uncertainty, is only going to be prolonged. The final destination may still be significantly higher tariffs – with the average effective tariff rate ranging from 15-20% versus 2-3% last year – but getting there is going to take longer, with even more curves and u-turns.

We’re likely going to become really familiar with the entire number soup of tariff authority, assuming the court’s decision is not reversed by higher courts. Keep in mind that if the President ends up using authorities like Section 301 and 232, they’re going to be more enduring and able to withstand future legal challenges (assuming they go through the required procedures).

At the same time, the court ruling significantly reduces the tail risk of tariffs going from 10% to 50% over the course of a day (and reversed again). We’re probably done with that, unless the ruling is reversed.

More Revenue for Business, Less Revenue For The Government
The court gave the administration 10 days to halt tariff collection, but made no provision for refunds of tariffs collected to date. Businesses can file claims with US Customs but expect these to be trapped in bureaucratic red tape (especially because there are fewer workers across the federal government right now). Even though the administration is appealing to the US Court of Appeals (and after that the Supreme Court if things don’t go in their favor), a decision is unlikely in 10 days.

So in all likelihood, tariff collection will be halted. That’s going to have an impact. Not surprisingly, the federal government has seen a surge in tariff duties on imports this year. Over the first 98 days of the year, the federal government has collected $67 billion in tariff revenue, significantly higher than the $38 billion collected a year ago across the same period. Over the full year the Tax Foundation estimates that tariff revenue will increase by about $150 billion, followed by $180-$190 billion in 2026 and 2027. And about $1.5 trillion over the next ten years. More than two thirds of this is from the tariffs imposed using IEEPA authority, which is now in doubt.



It also provides less revenue offset to the massive deficit-financed tax bill that is moving through Congress right now. Tariffs were never going to completely offset the deficit increase from the tax bill, but even about $1.5 trillion over the next ten years would provide a reasonable offset to a tax bill that is likely going to increase deficits by $4-5 trillion over the next decade.

Markets Loved the News, At First
Markets reacted very positively to the news right off the bat, with equity market futures breaking higher on Wednesday night after the news broke. Another sign that markets are extremely reactive to any news around the tariff issue – a key theme of the last two months.

The small cap Russell 2000 index futures raced to a 3% gain overnight (top panel in the chart below). However, most of those gains reversed by market open on Thursday. S&P 500 futures gained as much as 1.4% overnight before losing about half of it by morning (bottom panel in the chart).



Small cap stocks will be a major beneficiary of the possibility that the tariff mess is behind us, and so it’ll be interesting to watch if the Russell 2000 holds on to gains and manages to outperform its large cap counterparts over the next few days. That’ll tell us how investors in aggregate are assessing the ruling, let alone the possibility of it being reversed and/or the administration finding workarounds.

Irrespective of how things move forward from here, and there’s a lot of uncertainty around that, the court ruling is a reminder that the bedrock American principle of checks and balances still exist.

Why Mom and Pop Might Now Be the Smart Money


“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett, Chairperson at Berkshire Hathaway

We’ve been talking a lot the how during this near bear market and historic bounce back of 2025, retail investors have been buying aggressively, while institutional money managers have been scared and underinvested. Historically, we’ve long considered the big money managers to be the smart money and Mom and Pop investors to be the dumb money. Well, like all things, it isn’t ever this clear cut, but my take is we very well could be seeing the opposite taking place right now.

For starters, let’s see how the “smart money” is positioned. The recent Barron’s Big Money Poll asked where all the bulls went, as it had the least amount of bulls in 30 years, while the Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey had the lowest U.S. equity allocation in two years. Both of these look at actual money managers and it gives a great take of how they feel and likely were invested near those April lows, right before the historic rally.





And what has retail been doing? Fortunately, buying and not panicking. Last Monday, we were greeted with red across the board and worries over yet another U.S. debt downgrade, yet investors stepped up in historic fashion. According to data from JP Morgan, individual investors purchased more than $4 billion in U.S. stocks before noon for the first time ever.



Taking things out a step further, JP Morgan data showed there was a record monthly inflow by retail investors in April to the tune of $40 billion.



So, in the face of what is looking like a huge buying opportunity, retail investors stepped up and found good value, yet money managers tossed in the towel. Doesn’t sound very smart to me. It all reminds me of the great quote from Uncle Warren back at the top of this blog.

It doesn’t stop there, as Vanguard found that only 5% of investors in Vanguard 401k plans made changes to their portfolios in 2024, while 29% increased how much they invested in their retirement plans, up 4% from 2019.



Meanwhile, according to Morningstar, more than $4 trillion is now invested in target-date funds, which is used by many as a set it and forget it strategy, helping to stay invested and buy during times of stress and volatility.



Why is this happening? I think investment advice is more widespread than ever before, likely educating many investors to not panic when the inevitable scary moments come. We work with some of the best advisors in the industry at Carson Group and I’ve heard time and time again from them that clients might not like what happened in April, but they stuck with their investment plans and didn’t make a rash decision to sell near the lows.

The bottom line is we do think the lows for the year are in and better times could be coming the second half of 2025, and it is exciting to think that retail investors will likely benefit from this potential rally. If you want to read more about this, be sure to take a look at what my friend Ben Carlson wrote recently, as this sparked me to write about it as well.

Memorial Day Week – Historical Strength Has Faded

The week after Memorial Day performed quite well from 1971 to 1995. DJIA & S&P 500 up 68% of the time, averaging 0.8% – DJIA up 12 in a row 1984-95. NASDAQ was up 72% of the time, average 0.6%, up 10 straight 1986-95. Since 1979 Russell 2000 was up 88.2% of the time, average 0.9%, up 13 straight 1983-95.

Starting in 1996 the week after Memorial Day performance diminished. DJIA was up only 41.4% of the time, average +0.02%, down 10 of last 15. S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all gained ground less than 59% of the time. Monstrous NASDAQ and Russell 2000 gains during the week in 2000 do skew the averages.

2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac page 102 tracks behavior before & after holidays since 1980. Days after Memorial Day show positivity. But weakness has increased in the last 21-years, the 3 days after Memorial Day. Tuesday after Memorial Day, DJIA is down 8 of the last 10, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 down 7 in the last 10, and NASDAQ down 6 of the last 10.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 5.30.25-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 5.30.25-

 

​

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for May 30th, 2025
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/1/25
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StocksForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

========================================================================================================

StocksForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (6/2-6/6) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (6/2) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($AVGO $CRWD $CRDO $MDB $DG $NIO $DOCU $CPB $SIG $LULU $PVH $CIEN $FIVE $CBRL $RBRK $SAIC $PL $OLLI $GIII $HPE $IOT $TTAN $CHPT $DLTR $CURV $ABVX $VRNT $WOOF $ZUMZ $LE $FERG $REVG $MAMA $GWRE $TTC $BARK $MOMO $ABM $ASAN $BF.B $BRZE $BASE $CXM $DCI $GEF $GES $GCO $DSGX $FCEL $DLTH)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning June 2nd, 2025 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading month and week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, June the 2nd, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 6/2/25 - New Month, Same Concerns
Mon, Jun 2, 2025

Another month has come and gone, and we’re now at the two-month anniversary of the “Liberation Day” ceremony at the White House Rose Garden. The event set off a massive roller coaster in global financial markets, even though markets are little changed from a point-to-point basis. With earnings season largely behind us, economic data and the President’s Truth Social account will be the most closely watched items of the week. While the scheduled start will be at 10 AM with the release of May’s ISM Manufacturing report and the April report on Construction Spending, the timing of headlines related to trade is as predictable as a thunderstorm in the summer. You never know when one will pop up, but you know they always will.

It's hard to believe that even as the S&P 500 was on the cusp of a bear market in early April, the index’s total return over the last 12 months has been better than average. With a total return of 13.5%, the S&P 500’s gain over the last year outpaced the long-term average by 1.5 percentage points. Over the last two and five years, annualized returns have been even stronger at 20.6% and 15.9%, respectively. Both of those returns are also well above the historical average of about 10.5% for all periods since 1928. Even over the last 10 years, the 12.9% annualized gain is still more than two full percentage points better than average. You have to go out to the 20-year window to find a timeframe where returns are below average, and even there, the 10.5% annualized gain is only slightly less than the long-term average of 10.8%.



The chart below shows how the current one, two, five, ten, and twenty-year returns stack up relative to the long-term average. While the one-year gain is only slightly above the 50th percentile, the S&P 500’s two- and five-year performance is above the 75th percentile.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, June 2nd, 2025.

 

Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, June the 3rd, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 6/3/25 - Rise and Shine
Tue, Jun 3, 2025

US equity futures were under pressure before the sun came up on the East Coast this morning. As the sun rose, though, so too did prices, and based on where things stand now, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on pace to open just modestly lower. In China overnight, the manufacturing PMI for May dropped back below 50 for the first time this year, indicating ongoing weakness as the trade war weighs on the manufacturing sector. In Europe, inflation was below the ECB's 2% target as May CPI rose at just 1.9% y/y.

In the US, the only reports on the calendar are Factory Orders (expected to fall 3.1% y.y) and JOLTS (7.1 million), and the OECD lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US down from 2.2% to 1.6. On the earnings front, the only major movers this morning are Dollar General (DG) and Signet (SIG), and both stocks are trading up over 10%. While not related to earnings, shares of Constellation Energy (CEG) are also sharply higher after announcing a multi-year deal to supply Meta (META) with nuclear power.

Today also marks the 36th anniversary of the Chinese military’s crackdown on the pro-democracy protest in Tiananmen Square. Even if it has been ‘forgotten’ by the Chinese internet, who can forget the picture of “Tank Man” defiantly standing in front of a row of Chinese tanks? As Adi Ignatius, who covered the protests for the Wall Street Journal, put it, Tiananmen Square was a crossroads in history where citizens had the opportunity to get very rich as long as they could just keep their mouths shut. Jack Ma knows this all too well.

While the government’s actions in 1989 were a big blow to democracy and saw individual freedoms get crushed, China has seen a major surge in its wealth. In 1989, per capita GDP in China was less than $311. Today, it’s $12,614, representing an increase of 3,950%. Over that same period, US per capita GDP increased by less than 260%.



Comparing per capita GDP in China to the US shows how the gap has narrowed. While US per capita GDP is still 6.5 times the level of China, in 1989, US per capita GDP was more than 70 times China's! While China has narrowed the gap in a big way, its rate of growth relative to the US has slowed considerably in recent years. In the ten years leading up to Xi Jinping becoming President in 2013, the ratio of US to Chinese per capita GDP shrank from 30.6 to 7.6. Since Xi became President in 2013, the ratio has declined from 7.6 to 6.5.



The slowing growth of China has also been reflected in the performance of Chinese stocks. While the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) has seen some big moves, both up and down over the last 10+ years, its price is essentially unchanged from where it was 14 years ago.