Stock Market Today: June 30th - July 4th, 2025

Welcome to the trading week of June 30th!

S&P 500 closes at a record Friday, overcoming even more trade angst: Live updates



The S&P 500 hit fresh records on Friday as traders managed to look past new comments from President Donald Trump tied to U.S.-Canada tariffs. The broad market index’s rise to new highs marks a sharp turnaround from the lows seen in April during the height of trade policy tensions.

The benchmark added 0.52% and closed at a record of 6,173.07. Earlier in the session, the S&P 500 rose as much as 0.76% to a high of 6,187.68, taking out its previous record of 6,147.43. The Nasdaq Composite, which also hit an all-time high and closed at a record, rose 0.52% to 20,273.46. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 432.43 points, or 1%, settling at 43,819.27.

Stocks pulled back from their session highs after Trump said on Truth Social that trade talks between the U.S. and Canada were being terminated. Initially, investors bid up equities after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg News late Thursday that a framework between China and the U.S. on trade had been finalized. Lutnick added that the Trump administration expects to reach deals with 10 major trading partners imminently.

Friday’s sharp moves mark the latest episode in which Wall Street tries to navigate an ever-changing global trade landscape.

After rising to a new high in February on hopes for business-friendly policies from Trump, stocks tumbled as the president decided to instead implement severe tariffs first. At its low in April, the S&P 500 was down nearly 18% for 2025. The benchmark began a stunning comeback after Trump walked back his stiffest tariff rates and the U.S. began negotiations for trade deals.

The S&P 500 is up more than 20% since reaching a nadir on April 8 and now up nearly 5% for the year. Along the way, investors kept buying despite a spike in oil prices spurred by the Israel-Iran conflict and a yield surge on deficit worries. A recovery in the artificial intelligence trade led by Nvidia and Microsoft helped fuel the comeback.

“I can see where the risks are here - if the trade [progress] is just hype from the White House and no deals are really forthcoming, then this market is going to roll over,” Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. “Ultimately, this all comes back to growth in the U.S. economy and growth of earnings.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:



Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

 

International Revenues
Fri, Jun 27, 2025

Equities have returned to record highs, but performance during the fall from grace earlier this year and the subsequent rebound off the April lows has not exactly been even. With tariff headlines being one of the main focuses of the market this year, performance has been sensitive to how exposed a given stock is to international trade. One proxy for this international exposure is the percentage of revenues that a company generates inside versus outside of the US. As shown below, from the election last November through Liberation Day when President Trump first announced reciprocal tariff rates, the best-performing cohort of Russell 1,000 members was those that do not generate any revenues outside of US borders (about 27% of member stocks in the index). That group averaged a 1.36% gain over that span compared to an average loss of 6.24% for the stocks that generate over half of their revenues outside the US (a little less than 20% of member stocks) or a more modest 2.65% average loss for all stocks in the index. Obviously, with the index trading at fresh records, stocks have amazingly been in rally mode in the wake of Liberation Day, with the average Russell 1,000 now sitting on a 4.6% gain in that span. Those internationals that had formerly been hit the hardest have since shifted to the best performers, averaging a 6.28% gain.



Breaking the Russell 1,000 into deciles (equal-sized groups ranked by their share of revenues generated internationally from low to high) is another way of telling the story. As shown in the first chart below, from Election Day through Liberation Day, the only decile to average a gain was comprised of the stocks with zero international revenue exposure. Conversely, decile 10 of the most heavily exposed dropped 8.16% on average, the worst of any decile. That trend of outperformance of domestics with underperformance of internationals has been turned on its head in the past couple of months as decile 10 is now the best performing group since Liberation Day..



Using data from our International Revenues Database, a little over a quarter of the Russell 1,000 generates all of their revenues domestically (or in North America). That reading has been mostly flat in the past few years and is also down versus the high 30% range in the late 2000s. By comparison, the share of stocks that rely on international sales for a majority of their revenues is a little less than 20% which is right inline with the typical reading observed for most of the past decade.



Of course, the type of business a company is involved in is a major determinant of international revenue exposure. For example, Utilities are, in a sense, natural monopolies as well as heavily regulated. Logically, that makes it hard for these companies to break into new markets, especially outside the US. As such, nearly all of that sector's revenues are generated within US borders, whereas an area like Tech is the polar opposite. Easier trade restrictions and largely frictionless supply chains for things like software mean that the Tech sector sees almost half of its revenues come from outside the US.



The Bespoke Report - Equity Market Pros and Cons - Q3 2025
Fri, Jun 27, 2025

This week's Bespoke Report is an updated version of our "Pros and Cons" edition for Q3 2025.

With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!

On page three of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. Slides for each topic are then provided on page four and beyond.

Below is a look at the performance of key ETFs across asset classes so far in Q2 and year-to-date.

After a very rough March and early April, equities both domestically and globally have surged since. The S&P 500 (SPY) is currently up more than 10% in Q2 with just one full trading day left on Monday. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up much more at 17.4%, while the Semis (SMH) are up more than 30%.

As good as it has been in the US, it has been an even better first half and second quarter for much of the rest of the world. The All World ex US ETF (CWI) is up 18.5% on the year versus a gain of 5.7% for the US (SPY), and countries like Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), Mexico (EWW), and Spain (EWP) are sitting on 30%+ YTD gains.

As a reminder, quarterly rallies this strong aren’t the norm, so enjoy it but don’t get too cocky heading into Q3. Mr. Market loves serving humble pie to the face of investors that think they have it all figured out.

Mega-ETFs
Wed, Jun 25, 2025

Investors continue to pump money into ETFs, and there are now 188 in the US with more than $10 billion in assets and 13 with more than $100 billion.

The 188 ETFs that each have more than $10 billion in assets have a combined AUM of $8.7 trillion, while the 13 that have more than $100 billion each combine for $3.7 trillion. Similar to the mega-caps dominating the S&P 500, the "mega-ETFs" dominate the ETF world.

Below is a list of the largest US ETFs by AUM along with their year-to-date performance and expense ratios.



The three biggest ETFs all track the S&P 500. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is the biggest with $682 billion in AUM, followed by the first-ever ETF - SPY - at $611 billion and the BlackRock-owned iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) at $585 billion.

The next two largest are Vanguard's Total Stock Market (VTI) at $486 billion and Invesco's QQQ Trust (QQQ) at $337 billion.

Vanguard's FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA) is the biggest global stock market ETF, followed by the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA).

There are two fixed income ETFs with $100+ billion in AUM: Vanguard's Total Bond Market (BND) and iShares' Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG). And finally, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has also eclipsed the $100 billion mark recently after gaining 26.5% on the year.

Of the ETFs shown, GLD has the highest expense ratio at 0.40% per year, but that's not too bad considering all the gold it has to store!

While not yet at $100 billion in AUM, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is currently the 24th largest US ETF at $71 billion. That represents roughly 3.3% of Bitcoin's total market cap of $2.14 trillion. With a 0.25% expense ratio, that's a cool $177.5 million in annualized fees for BlackRock (BLK) from that ETF alone. That's also $2 million more than the $175.5 million they get from the 3 basis points charged on their S&P 500 ETF (IVV).

Typical July Trading: Strength Early, Beyond Midmonth Mixed

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the seventh best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Lively trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year tends to bring an inflow of new capital.

This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed/flat final third. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a modestly bearish bias over the last 21 years. In post-election years since 1950, July has exhibited a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period with some modest weakness just ahead of Independence Day.

July Best DJIA and S&P 500 Month in Post-Election Years & Top Month of Q3

Historically July is the best performing month of the third quarter, however traditionally tepid August and September tend to make the comparison easy. “Hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% combined with strong performances in 2013, 2018, and 2022, have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 have been up ten straight Julys (2015-2024). NASDAQ declined 0.8% in July 2024, ending its streak of July gains at nine in a row. Russell 2000 has been up eight times in the same period (down in 2015 and 2021). Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 76, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2025).


Post-election-year July rankings are stellar, ranking #1 for DJIA and S&P 500, averaging gains of 2.1% and 2.2% respectively (since 1950). For NASDAQ (since 1971) post-election-year Julys rank #2 with an average gain of 3.2%. July ranks #3 in post-election years for Russell 1000 and 2000 since 1979.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 6.27.25-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 6.27.25-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for June 27th, 2025
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/29/25
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StocksForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StocksForums Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (6/30-7/4) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (6/30) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Monday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($PRGS $QMCO $STZ $UNF $FC $MSM $GBX $ZENV)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning June 30th, 2025 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, June the 30th, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 6/30/25 - Resume the Counting!
Mon, Jun 30, 2025

The market enthusiasm that took the S&P 500 to new highs last Friday has followed through to the new week as the S&P 500 looks to gap up about 0.5% at the open. Financials are leading this morning's gains as the Fed announced last Friday that all of the banks passed the stress tests. Goldman Sachs (GS) is leading the way with gains of over 3%, but all of the other major banks and brokers are up around 1% or more.

The only economic indicators on the calendar this morning are the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report at 10:30. Washington will be a focus for the market today as investors look to see if the Senate can pass a version of the GOP tax bill.

Last Friday’s close in the S&P 500 marked the first new all-time closing high for the S&P 500 in over four months and now fully puts the tariff-induced near-bear market in the rearview mirror. It also completes one of the more stunning market cycles where the S&P 500 experienced one of its sharpest sell-offs from an all-time high on record, followed by one of its swiftest rebounds.



With the new high, we can also resume the count of new all-time closing highs for the S&P 500, which for 2025 now totals four. That may sound like a meager number, but two months ago, the thought of new highs for the S&P 500 seemed like a pipe dream. With roughly 125 trading days left in the year, we’re unlikely to get anywhere near last year's total of 57 record closing highs this year, but you have to start somewhere.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, June 30th, 2025.

 

Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading month and quarter and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, July the 1st, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 7/1/25 - The Spat Resumes
Tue, Jul 1, 2025

It’s a new month, a new quarter, and a new half this morning, and while investors would certainly be happy with a repeat in terms of the returns during the half, they would prefer to do without the volatility. This morning, futures are drifting moderately lower after two straight days of record closing highs. The quarter is also getting off to an active start with the June ISM Manufacturing report at 10:00 AM, along with the May reports on Construction Spending and JOLTS.

While these reports will likely impact the market upon their release, so far this morning, there aren’t many headlines driving the market in either direction. While futures are lower, the magnitude of the losses has been pretty modest so far. In Washington, the Senate is still trying to pass the GOP Reconciliation Bill. That ongoing process has led to a resurgence in the war of words between Elon Musk, who hates the bill and is threatening to primary conservatives who vote for it, and President Trump, who responded with comments that Elon owes all his success to government subsidies and said DOGE should look into them.

Besides another flare-up in the spat between President Trump and Elon Musk, Tesla (TSLA) has been in the news this week as the company marked the 15th anniversary of its IPO on Sunday. Based on its performance this year, the stock hasn’t exactly been celebrating the milestone. While well off its April lows, it’s still down over 20% on the year, and this morning, it's on pace to open down by another 5% after the President ‘truthed’ that DOGE should look into all the subsidies that Musk’s various companies receive. If these pre-market losses hold, it will also put the stock below both its 50 and 200-day moving averages, just as it experiences a ‘golden cross’ where the 50-day moving average (DMA) crosses up through the 200-DMA as both are rising.



Even with its 20%+ decline YTD, TSLA still ranks as the third best performing stock out of the current Russell 1000 members with an eye-popping gain of 19,849% since its IPO. The only two stocks that have performed better are Nvidia (NVDA), which has tripled TSLA’s gain, and Axon Enterprise (AXON), which is up just under 22,000%. Trailing behind TSLA, Broadcom (AVGO), and Texas Pacific Land (TPL) round out the top five stocks that have all rallied more than 10,000%. That’s a 100-bagger!



While the last 15 years have been great for TSLA, the road for traditional auto OEMs hasn’t been much bumpier. While the S&P 500 has rallied nearly sevenfold over the last 15 years, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have essentially gone nowhere.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, July 1st, 2025.