Stock Market Today: March 10th - 14th, 2025

Welcome to the trading week of March 10th!

S&P 500 closes higher in volatile trading Friday, but index posts worst week since September: Live updates



The S&P 500 regained some ground on Friday, but the index still posted its worst week in several months as the salvo of trade policy actions unnerved investors.

The broad index rose 0.55% to 5,770.20, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% to 18,196.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 222.64 points, or 0.52%, to end at 42,801.72.

Friday saw volatile trading, with the Dow falling more than 400 points at session lows before an afternoon rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell more than 1% at their worst points in the trading day.

Despite Friday’s recovery, the S&P 500 notched its worst week since September with a loss of 3.1%. The Dow, meanwhile, fell 2.4% this week. The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.5% on the week — during which it had entered correction territory, which means the tech-heavy index finished a session 10% off its recent high.

Investors shook off a weaker-than-expected jobs report released Friday, which raised further concerns about an economic softening and briefly sent Treasury yields lower. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs in February, less than the consensus forecast for 170,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.1%.

That came as stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride this week with President Donald Trump’s tariff policies worrying investors about future U.S. growth and inflation. Trump said on Thursday that a swath of goods from Canada and Mexico that are covered by the North American trade agreement known as USMCA would be exempt from the announced duties until April 2.

This move effectively walked back much of the original plan for levies on the two countries, along with China. But the market still sold off this week, with uncertainty mounting amid constant updates and a lack of clarity on what to expect longer term.

“The market does not like uncertainty,” said Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management. “While we expect the market to find its footing and recover from the tariff-driven selloff, investors should brace for continued choppiness until these uncertainties clear.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged to CNBC on Friday that the economy could be starting to “roll a bit.” However, he said that was due to a transition from the policies of the previous administration. Bessent said any tariffs implemented would be a “one-time price adjustment” and not spark lasting inflation.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

 

The Most Oversold Country in the World
Thu, Mar 6, 2025

In a post yesterday, we discussed the historic surge in German equities, which is even more historic when framed relative to US equity performance. We further discussed the topic of international stock outperformance concerning valuations in today's Chart of the Day. In the matrix below, we show the performance of 22 country ETFs since the US election in November, year to date in 2025, and month to date in February. We also show each ETF's distance from 52-week highs and where they currently trade relative to their 50-DMAs.

On average, developed markets have massively outperformed since the election and year to date. Whereas the former are up an average of 5.5% since November, emerging markets have averaged a nearly 5% decline. More recently, looking in the young month of March, developed markets are again collectively outperforming but by a much smaller margin. The single best performer and the only one currently trading at a 52-week high is Germany (EWG). EWG has risen an impressive 7% since the end of last week, bringing it deeply into overbought territory. However, that isn't even the most overbought country ETF. Hong Kong (EWH) is trading over 3 standard deviations above its 50-DMA for the country's most overbought reading since October. Meanwhile, all the way at the other end of the spectrum by pretty much each measure is the US (SPY). The S&P 500 has now erased close to all its post-election gains after falling the most of any country month-to-date. As such, it is also the single most oversold country ETF on this list.



Trump Tariff Turmoil Post-Election Year Plunge

Following up on Tuesday’s post with a deeper look from our member’s webinar yesterday into post-election year performance under new republican administration. Looks like President Trump is taking a page out of our 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac 4-year cycle playbook. Updated chart highlights detail of the republican admins from table on page 28.

German (EWG) Stock Surge
Wed, Mar 5, 2025

The S&P 500 (SPY) had a solid session Wednesday with a 1% gain, but that still leaves it down 1.87% week-to-date. Meanwhile, across the pond in Europe, German equities are surging. Germany has unrolled significant fiscal changes this week which we discussed at length in last night's Closer in addition to a more succinct explanation in today's Morning Lineup. To put it lightly, investors appear to love the news. The MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) has surged this week with a 6.8% gain week-to-date. As shown below, that is a historically large 3-day run for the ETF/country. In fact, it is the largest three-day gain since November 2022 and ranks just shy of the 99th percentile across all three-day moves in the ETF's history. Relative to what has transpired in the US, things get even more historic. The three-day performance of EWG has outpaced SPY by 8.69 percentage points. Going back through the nearly 30 years of price history, only two periods saw wider performance spreads: around the COVID Crash lows five years ago and at the start of 1999.



Ten Questions on Tariffs, the Economy, Markets, and Our Outlook


Ok, tariffs happened. But now what is the big question—for policy, the economy, and obviously, markets. Here are Carson Investment Research’s answer to 10 key questions.

One: What tariffs went into effect?
At 12:01am on March 4th, new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China went into effect. These included:

• 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods, with the exception of Canadian energy imports (which will be tariffed at 10%)
• 25% tariffs on all Mexican goods
• 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods, which will be in addition to the 10% tariffs that went into effect a month ago

The tariff orders exempt “de minimis” goods (goods/packages with a value below $800), since the US doesn’t have systems in place to process these. This exception didn’t originally apply to the initial 10% round of tariffs on Chinese goods, but US customs and USPS struggled to implement these on small packages, and the exemption was restored. Note that this is one way a lot of Chinese goods making their way into the US have avoided tariffs (since 2018).

These tariffs are big deal – Canada, Mexico, and China make up about 43% of US goods imports, and 41% of US exports.



The tariffs on China alone are twice as large as those imposed during President Trump’s first term. The new tariffs will raise the average effective tariff rate that the US imposes on imports from about 2% to near 10%, which is something we haven’t seen since the 1930s and ‘40s. The US is once again putting a self-imposed economic blockade around itself.



Two: Are there more tariffs to come, and will other countries retaliate?
Short answer: yes (to both questions). President Trump has plenty more planned. These include national security-based tariffs on steel, aluminum, and even lumber and agricultural imports (the US imports $200 billion in food products). Plus, reciprocal tariffs on every country, which would match the tariff rate other countries impose on US goods. It’s going to take a while before several of these come through. For example, the reciprocal tariffs are going to be very hard to navigate and implement for US agencies (think of how many trade partners the US has, and all of them may impose different rates for different goods).

Retaliatory actions are already in the works. Canada imposed 25% tariffs on $20.5 billion in US goods but haven’t specified the products yet. They plan to extend that list to $85 billion of goods over the next few weeks. Mexico is set to respond by this weekend. China was a lot quicker out of the gate, announcing retaliatory tariffs minutes after Trump’s latest tariffs were imposed. Amongst other measures, they’re imposing broad tariffs on food imported from the US, which is targeted to hit the export-oriented US agricultural industry. US farmers will likely face the brunt of a long-drawn out trade war. Back in 2018, the Trump administration gave out subsidies to blunt the impact, but it may not be as easy this time around with the deficit already running high.

Here’s a useful chart from Bloomberg showing the list of tariffs, and potential retaliatory actions.



Three: Weren’t Tariff Threats Supposed to be a “negotiating ploy”?
That was the expectation, but we have tariffs now. The White House has said that Canada, Mexico, and China need to do a lot more to stop the flow of illicit drugs into the US. Canada and Mexico promised to act and that was why the tariffs were postponed by a month. But Trump clearly believes their efforts are lagging, and didn’t want to wait longer (or perhaps risk being seen as crying wolf). At the same time, it’s not clear what exact quantifiable metrics these countries need to meet. Trump’s also unhappy about trade imbalances—a long-held belief of his is that these countries are taking advantage of Americans by selling us a lot of goods.

All this may get resolved in eventual negotiations, though correcting for trade imbalances is going to be tricky. For example, once you exclude oil, the US actually exports more goods to Canada than it imports. Note that the US is the largest energy producer in the world, but it needs Canadian “heavy crude oil” for its refineries (different from the mostly “light, sweet, crude” produced in the US). It’s hard to see how Canada will rebalance its trade with the US. China is also unlikely to take concrete measures to reduce its reliance on manufacturing and exports. In fact, imposing tariffs on Mexico but not Southeast Asian countries works to China’s benefit, as a lot of Chinese companies route exports through Southeast Asia.

Anyway, for now, it’s all action and not much talk. The trade war is here, and it may last a while. Even if we get a roll back of tariffs, the threat is going to loom over the global economy.



Four: Will prices go up due to tariffs?
All else equal, yes, prices will go up. But it’s going to vary a lot depending on several factors, including retaliatory tariffs and currency movements. The White House expects the dollar to appreciate, alleviating some of the pressure of higher prices. However, a stronger dollar is a double-edged sword as we wrote in our 2025 Outlook. Yes, it makes imports cheaper (perhaps offsetting some impact of higher tariffs) but it also makes US exports more expensive (on top of facing retaliatory tariffs) and that hurts US producers. The dollar index rose about 10% from the end of last September through mid-January. But the dollar has pulled back by about 4% since then and is close to where it was on election day, negating the expectation that the price impact of new tariffs will be mitigated by an appreciating dollar.



The impact on prices is also going to vary depending on the type of product. The Budget Lab estimates larger prices increases on items like computers and electronics (+10.6%), apparel (+7.5%), autos (+6.1%), fresh produce like fruits and vegetables (+2.9%), and wood products (+2.9%). This accounts for higher import prices as well as substitution effects (if Americans switch to higher priced goods made in the US).



Companies may also choose to eat higher input costs instead of passing them onto the end consumer, though this will imply shrinking margins. This is what happened in 2018 – 2019, but during the recent bout of high inflation (in 2021 – 2022), companies passed down costs and margins even expanded. So, we may be in a regime where companies believe they can actually pass down costs to consumers without impacting demand for their goods (or their margins).

Note that a one-time price increase does not imply inflation will rise. Higher inflation would mean that prices continue rising month after month, and unless tariffs continuously ratchet higher, we’re unlikely to see that. This is not to say that even a one-time price increase will not hurt consumers and businesses. Think of it like a one-time increase in the sales tax.


Five: Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to alleviate any pain from tariffs?
Unlikely. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has currently paused on further rate cuts, and tariff uncertainty is likely to keep them on pause for longer. Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly highlighted the uncertainty around tariff policy as one of the reasons behind the pause. They’re going to want to see what tariffs are being implemented, the goods on which they’re imposed, the duration of tariffs, and ultimately model out the impact (or even see it in the data).

At the same time, the Fed did cut rates back in 2019 when they thought elevated rates were hurting economic growth. Rates are clearly elevated now—even Powell has acknowledged that they are “meaningfully restrictive”—and that’s hurting cyclical areas of the economy like housing. The latest manufacturing data indicates that raw materials prices are rising and companies are worried about volatility and uncertainty due to tariffs.

All this means that the Fed could act sooner if the economy is seen to be faltering, with the unemployment rate starting to rise well above its current rate of 4.0. We still expect the Fed to cut 2 – 3 times in 2025, but likely in the second half if there’s no deterioration in the labor market and disinflation continues. Markets are currently pricing in a Fed funds rate of 3.66% by the end of 2025, implying close to 3 rate cuts before year end, though the first one is not expected before June. A month ago, markets were pricing in just 1 cut—there’s been a big shift since then as economic data has come in on the weaker side. Meanwhile, Fed members are expecting to cut rates twice in 2025.



As we’ve pointed out for some time now, inflation is no longer a problem, and elevated rates are hitting key parts of the economy. So, the Fed should probably cut rates sooner rather than later, instead of waiting for worse data. Fed rate cuts prompted by bad news, like a higher unemployment rate, is not what you want to be hoping for. We tend to believe that bad news is bad news, and once the unemployment rate starts to go up, it’s likely to continue going up. There’s no such thing as a “mild recession” or a “little disturbance.” It’s folly to hope for one, believing you can turn it around when it happens.

Six: Will we see stagflation as a result of tariffs?
A colleague of mine pointed out that google trends has shown a jump in searches for the word “stagflation”. Stagflation is an economic environment when you have 1) high unemployment and 2) high inflation. We have neither right now. The likelihood of stagflation is really low.

The unemployment rate is currently at 4%, near historical lows. Labor market indicators suggest that layoffs remain low, despite announced cuts in federal government jobs.

With respect to inflation, tariffs will likely increase prices in a one-time shift, but sustained inflation is unlikely. For sustained inflation, one of the first places you want to look at is oil prices. The last time we had stagflation was in the 1970s, and the inflation spikes of 1973 – 1974 and 1979 – 1980 were both accompanied by energy shocks. Even more recently in 2022, the big surge in inflation came amid higher energy prices that shot up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Right now, oil prices are trending in the opposite direction, especially on the back of recent news that OPEC (+Russia) is going to step up production. WTI crude prices are near the bottom end of the range we’ve seen over the last two and half years.



Markets aren’t expecting stagflation either. If they were, we would see expected Fed policy rates move higher, as the Fed looked to combat higher inflation. Instead, they’ve been moving lower amid expectations of weaker than expected growth (as I wrote under question #5).



Seven: Will there be a (deflationary) recession?
A more pertinent question rather than whether we’ll have stagflation. Right now, we don’t believe we’ll see a deflationary recession, i.e. one where the unemployment rate spikes, and consumption slows down a lot (leading to lower prices).

Consumption did slow in January, a lot. But this is likely due to the fires in California and unseasonably cold weather across the South. We expect a rebound in February and March. In fact, we saw February auto sales rise 1.8% to 16 million vehicles (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), higher than at any point between June 2021 and September 2024.

Income growth is still running strong and remains faster than inflation. Over the last three months, employee compensation (across all workers in the economy) rose at an annualized pace of 5.7%, even as headline inflation (as measured by the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation metric) rose 2.9%. Disposable income was up even more, rising 6.7%, though that was due to the one-off effect of Social Security benefits being adjusted higher by 2.8% for inflation.



In short, inflation-adjusted incomes continue to rise and that should support consumption. Of course, as I noted above, cyclical areas of the economy are struggling, and that could be the difference between 2.5 – 3% GDP growth and 1.5 – 2% GDP growth.

Ultimately, the labor market is key because that is where income growth comes from (including employment gains, wage growth, and hours worked). Right now, it’s in a fairly healthy place, even though hiring has slowed a lot. It’s a good labor market if you already have a job, but a tough one if you’re out of work and looking for a job. The good news is that the Fed’s bias is towards cutting rates rather than increasing them (despite tariffs). They look ready to step in to protect the labor market if there’s any deterioration, and that’s a big positive.



Eight: Will markets crash?
We believe the bull market is still young and has ways left to go. However, we could see significant volatility—something we expected when we wrote our 2025 Outlook over three months ago. The S&P 500 is down 6.0% from the February 19th peak, which has many investors quite worried, but volatility is the toll we pay to invest. That’s right, even some of the best years on record have seen some scary moments, making 2025 not all that different from any year in history.

Focusing specifically on the past two years, stocks gained more than 20% both times, but it wasn’t easy. Remember March 2023 and the Regional Bank crisis? The S&P 500 had a 7.8% mild correction then and then a 10% correction into late October, yet still managed to rally and gain more than 20%. Then last year we again saw mild corrections two separate times, with the big one being the 8.5% mild correction in August 2024 during the yen carry trade unwind drama. Yet again, stocks gained more than 20% for the year.

Looking into the data more, the average year historically has seen more than seven different 3% dips, more than three separate 5% mild corrections, and a 10% correction once a year. Going out more shows a bear market happens about once every three-and-a-half years. The bottom line is the headlines might be scary and uncertainty is rampant, but every year sees scary headlines and volatility, which should help put the tariff worries in perspective.

As long as we avoid a recession that hits the profit outlook, we should be able to avoid a sustained bear market. And our base case is still no recession.



Nine: Can markets turn around after early year weakness?
We have seen weakness to start this year, and the S&P 500 has given up all its gains since election day (from November 5th through March 4th, 2025). The story has been worse for the most cyclical parts of the market, like small cap stocks. The S&P 500 Index is up just 0.4% since election day, while the small cap Russell 2000 index is down 7.6%.

Although this weak start to 2025 hasn’t been fun, it isn’t really a big surprise. Post election years tend to be quite weak early, with a negative year-to-date return as of early March typical. Sound familiar? Not to mention, we found that the first few months after a year with a 20% gain were historically choppy and weak as well. The good news is after these early year slumps we’ve seen the rest of the year improve and we expect that to happen once again.



Ten: Has our Outlook changed?
Perhaps the most important question. We titled our 2025 Outlook “Animal Spirits.” As we wrote there, we chose the title more for the potential for a rise in animal spirits than the conviction it would happen. With all the data that’s come in over the last two months, along with the fact that significant tariffs have now been implemented (at levels unprecedented since the end of WWII), the possibility of a rise in animal spirits is likely hanging by a thread. We did expect tariffs to be a significant threat, along with a stronger dollar. But there were opportunities too, including potential rate cuts by the Fed and favorable tax policy from Congress. The problem is that the sequencing has gone the wrong way—the threats are manifesting already even as potential opportunities get pushed out to the back half of the year.

The short answer to the question about our outlook is no, it hasn’t changed in a broad sense. We don’t expect a recession, and we still expect stocks to gain in 2025. But these things are not binary, and there are a range of possible outcomes. Risks have increased and we’re in the business of managing risk within the portfolios we manage. The policy outlook is murky, with the Fed on pause at least until the summer and the threat of tariffs holding back animal spirits for now. Congress is yet to really get moving on tax policy legislation, but early indications suggest that some preferred policies, like no taxes on tips, no taxes on social security income, and a lower corporate tax rate, may not come to pass.

Ultimately, what matters is how our views, and any changes, translate to portfolio actions. So here are some actions we’ve taken over the last month within our tactical portfolios:

• Maintained our equity overweight (given our still positive outlook), but reduced the size of the overweight for the first time in over two years
• Reduced exposure to areas of the market that tend to exhibit more volatility, including small-cap and mid-cap stocks
• Increased exposure to more defensive, low volatility stocks in the US, barbelled with allocations to stocks exhibiting momentum (including financials)
• Increased allocations to both Treasuries, particularly inflation-protected securities, as well as ultra-short term securities
• Maintained the allocation to managed futures to hedge against unexpected inflation shocks and gold (which we’ve held for close to two years now as a crisis hedge)

Our longer-term outlook hasn’t changed, and we haven’t made significant changes in our strategic portfolios. Big picture, we’re still overweight equities and underweight bonds.

We continue to monitor the macroeconomic data closely and evaluate both opportunities and threats on the policy side as well. If the facts change, we’ll update our views (and portfolios).

Post-Election Years Plague Republicans

The fear on The Street is palpable and it’s hitting levels associated with interim lows and rebounds. We have warned all year that this type of chop and volatility is to be expected in post-election years, especially in Q1. With the S&P 500 dipping further into the red for the year, we turn to page 28 of the 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac, “Post-Election Year Performance by Party.”

Historically, more bear markets and negative market action have plagued Republican administrations in the post-election year whereas the midterm year has been worse for Democrats. New republican administrations tend to come in and get down brass tacks more so than new democrats. This generates market uncertainty and Trump 2.0 has moved faster and further and covered more ground than any we can remember.

Why We Expect Some Green in March


“Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.” Warren Buffett, Chairperson at Berkshire Hathaway

Welcome to March and good riddance to February! In the end, February was a choppy and frustrating month, but this wasn’t a big surprise, as we wrote about and discussed all month. Are better times ahead? We think so, and March is the month of St. Patrick’s Day so maybe we should expect some green. Let’s get into it.

Not a Surprise, Don’t Panic
The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, Washington drama and geopolitical concerns, and big cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. Here’s the thing. Yes, the year-to-date gains we saw in January might have mostly vanished, but as we’ve noted before, early in a post-election years things tend to be choppy. Not to mention February is a weak month historically, especially in a post-election year. So in a way, this is normal and not a reason to panic. Here’s one way of showing this.



Here’s another angle on the same thing that shows the first quarter of a post-election year is the second weakest quarter out of the entire four-year presidential cycle. In other words, after back-to-back 20% gains the past two years, maybe a well deserved break to kick off 2025 is perfectly normal.



Here Comes March
In the end, the S&P 500 fell 1.4% in February, but not before a 1.6% jump on the last day of the month, which checked in at the best last day of February since Leap Day in 1988. If things feel choppy, that’s because they have been. The S&P 500 was up in September, down in October, up in November, down in December, up in January, and now down in February. That is the first time in history we’ve seen those six months alternate between green and red and it is the longest such streak of alternating up and down months since seven in a row from February through August back in 2022.

We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have scary headlines or worries. Just two weeks ago we were writing about new highs. That may feel like a long time ago, but really it just happened.

As poor as February is historically (and that played out), it is worth noting that March and April are two of the better months of the year. The past two decades March is the fourth best month and April is the third best month. You should never blindly invest in seasonality, but just as February was ripe for potential trouble, be open to the possibility of a nice Spring bounce.



Looking at March the past four years, the S&P 500 has gained more than 4%, 3%, 3%, and 3%. Of course, in 2020 it lost more than 12% for the worst March ever and worst month since October 2008. Here’s another closer look at election years, which shows February is weak (check), but these next three months tend to be strong.



Panic Is in the Air
How are you feeling about markets right now? Hopefully because you’ve been reading our blog you know that even the best years have scary headlines and volatility and that volatility is the toll we pay to invest. But we’ve seen historic levels of fear in various investor sentiment polls over the past week, even with stocks less than 5% away from all-time highs.

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed more than 60% bears for only the seventh time in history (going back to when the poll started in 1987). Here’s the catch—those other times we saw this level of fear were times like the 1990 recession and accompanying near bear market; October 2008 and March 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis; and the end of the bear market in 2022. In other words, stocks were down substantially before fear truly spiked, making what we are seeing now truly rare and uncharacteristic.

Stocks were up about 28% on average a year after previous times bears were above 60% (and higher every time), so contrarian bells are ringing right now. To get a larger sample size, we looked at all the times bears spiked above 55% in the AAII survey. Once again, the returns going out a year were quite strong overall, but we did notice fear spiked in early 2008 and many of those returns were significantly lower a year later.

But assuming we aren’t heading into another financial crisis (we don’t think we are), the other times we saw this was quite bullish for investors willing to stay strong and not panic sell. The S&P 500 was up a median of nearly 13% six months later and 18% a year later.



The CNN Fear & Greed Index was recently beneath 20, consistent with levels of fear last seen near major market lows.



Why does sentiment matter? Because the market is all about what is (or isn’t) priced in. For example, large cap tech stocks reported strong earnings across the board, yet many sold off hard when earnings were announced. This was because the bar was set quite high, maybe too high looking back. When worry is in the air and uncertainty is high, this tends to be a bullish contrarian signal, as better news eventually comes and clears that lowered bar. Given our overall still positive economic backdrop, we think seeing this much worry in the air is actually rather bullish, which is why we don’t expect the recent weakness to spiral out of control.

Get Invested: Don't Get Political
Tue, Mar 4, 2025

Our "Get Invested" series is a simple yet powerful resource designed to help anyone understand why investing in stocks for the long term is one of the best financial decisions they can make. The slide below from our Get Invested piece is titled "Don't Get Political."

Letting political beliefs get in the way of “buy and hold” has been extremely costly to investors. Going back 70 years, $1,000 invested in the US stock market only when a Republican is President would be worth $28,000 today. $1,000 invested only when a Democrat is President would be worth more than double that at $72,000. But that $1,000 would be worth almost $2 million today for those who put politics aside and stayed invested regardless of who’s in charge in Washington DC.



Where's the Weakness in Discretionary?
Mon, Mar 3, 2025

Entering the final month of the first quarter, most S&P 500 sectors are sitting on year-to-date gains, although there are two notable exceptions. The Tech sector is currently down 5.29%, which has dragged on broader market performance, given it's by far the largest sector by market cap. Consumer Discretionary is down an even worse 5.65% year to date, and returns look even worse when compared to the December 17th high. Since then, the sector is down just under 12%. As shown below, using the sector ETF (XLY) as a proxy for the group, that latest correction leaves it in no-man's-land between the 50 and 200-day moving averages with the recent low finding some support around the November post-election low.



Taking a look under the hood, breadth since that December high hasn't been that bad. Of the 50 stocks in the sector, half are higher, and half are lower since the high. However, there is a far larger weight in the losers than the winners. Among the decliners are the sector's largest names: Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN). Given that the S&P 500 is weighted by market cap, those declines in the mega caps—namely the outsized 38.4% drop in TSLA shares—have acted as significant drags on broader index performance.



Zeroing in on Tesla (TSLA), the stock peaked a day after the Consumer Discretionary sector, closing at a 52-week high on December 18. Regardless, it's been a brutal period of selling since then. The stock's nearly 40% decline saw it crash through its 50-DMA, and in the past few days, it has found support at its longer term 200-DMA.



Again, the S&P 500 and its sectors use a market-cap-weighted methodology, meaning stocks with larger market caps (like Tesla) will have a greater impact on the index than smaller peers. That also makes equal-weight versions of the indices useful in canceling out some of that noise and providing a better look at breadth. As shown below, whereas the market-cap weighted sector ETF (XLY) is down 9.6% from a 52-week high, the equal weight version (RSPD) is down less than 3%. Furthermore, whereas XLY looks like a falling knife, RSPD has just been bouncing sideways along the 50-DMA. The latest lows for RSPD came right at the uptrend line off of last summer's lows. So all together, while the weakness in the Consumer Discretionary sector may cause some alarms to go off as a sign of stress for the consumer, the current situation is more looking like a lesson in index weighting methodologies and mega-cap volatility.

Get Invested: Ignore the Noise
Sat, Mar 1, 2025

Our "Get Invested" series is a simple yet powerful resource designed to help anyone understand why investing in stocks for the long term is one of the best financial decisions they can make. The slide below from our Get Invested piece is titled "Ignore the Noise."

It’s hard to avoid monitoring the day-to-day action of the market when your hard-earned money is at stake, but for money that’s invested for the long-term, it’s best to try and ignore the noise.

The left chart below shows daily closing prices for the S&P 500 since the start of 2023. The right chart shows the S&P 500’s average daily closing price over the prior 200 trading days over the same time frame. Ignoring the daily ups and downs of the market and focusing on the longer-term trend is a helpful way to reduce unforced anxiety and potential disruptions to a buy and hold strategy.



Get Invested: "Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful"
Mon, Mar 3, 2025

Our "Get Invested" series is a simple yet powerful resource designed to help anyone understand why investing in stocks for the long term is one of the best financial decisions they can make. The slide below from our Get Invested piece is titled "Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful."

One of Warren Buffett’s most famous quotes is to “be greedy when others are fearful.” Unfortunately, many anxious investors can’t stomach losses in the stock market, causing them to go to “all cash” at exactly the wrong times. Take large declines, for example. Since WW2, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 15% in nine different quarters. Following every single instance, the index was higher a year later with an average one-year gain of 25.1%. Similarly, the S&P 500 has had two-quarter drops of 20%+ just eight times, and over the next year, the index was up by at least 17% with gains every single time.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 3.7.25-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 3.7.25-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for March 7th, 2025
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/9/25
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StockForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StockBoards Weekly Stock Picking Contest & S&P Sentiment Poll (3/10-3/14) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily S&P Sentiment Poll for Monday (3/10) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Tuesday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $DOCU $QBTS $ZIM $ULTA $KSS $DG $PATH $S $DKS $ASAN $VIK $GRWG $SMTC $PAY $MNR $CIEN $WB $AEO $CCI $BNTX $FTK $KINS $ARCO $SMSI $LI $PHR $IRBT $UNFI $MTN $AUNA $AEYE $NPWR $DRIO $LRFC $CION $MXCT $ECOR $LCTX $HRTG $FUTU $MX $PTMN $BWAY $ONDS $AMRN $VTS $GECC $TTAN)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning March 10th, 2025 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, March the 10th, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 3/10/25 - More Monday Weakness
Mon, Mar 10, 2025

The NFL season ended a month ago, but Carrie Underwood’s “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night” has remained as applicable as ever. With the S&P 500 teetering just above its 200-DMA and the market feeling vulnerable, investors now spend Sundays waiting for the inevitable opening of futures markets to see how bad the damage will be.

Once again, yesterday, the picture wasn’t good as futures have been weak all night. The S&P 500 finished last Friday just about 1% above its 200-day moving average (DMA), and this morning’s indicated weakness will put the level to the test for the fifth day in a row. There’s only so much testing a moving average can take before it gives way. Even European equities, which have been outperforming US stocks by a wide margin this year, are also feeling the pressure. What makes this morning’s weakness notable, though, is that there hasn’t been a specific catalyst.



The equal-weighted S&P 500 hasn’t been as weak as the cap-weighted index this year, but it finds itself in the same situation. It closed out last week just about 1% above its 200-DMA and is indicated to open down by a similar amount.



Normally, when doubts over the economy start to arise and markets start experiencing weakness, any comments that come from the Federal government attempt to take a soothing tone, but like a team having a tough season looking to improve their position in the next season’s draft, investors have been watching comments coming from administration and asking if they’re borrowing from the ‘tank-job’ playbook.

On CNBC last Friday, Treasury Secretary Bessent remarked, "Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure”. He then added what has already become a now famous line, “There's going to be a detox period.” It’s not common to see a Treasury Secretary talk down and pile on to what is an already shaky economic and market picture. Even in 2008, just ahead of the Financial Crisis, Treasury Secretary Paulson would regularly make comments like “I think the economy is -- long-term fundamentals are very healthy, that I believe we're going to continue to grow”.

In a Fox News interview that aired this weekend (recorded earlier in the week), President Trump took a similar stance, saying “There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that.” He added. “It won’t be much.” With regards to the stock market, the President claimed, “I’m not even looking at the market.” Come again? President Trump not looking at the stock market????

For anyone who was still using President Trump’s first four years as a playbook for the next four, you can burn it. Look on the bright side, though: maybe the economy will get some good draft picks.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, March 10th, 2025.

 

wow! it's been a while since we've had a trending down day. basically opening lower and just kinda cascading down throughout the day.

i wonder if we're getting closer to some capitulation bottom. but, tbh, this still feels a little too orderly to me. still no real panic imo.

let's see a vix spike up into the 40s and 50s then maybe we're onto something of a short-term bottom.

we shall see.

 

btw, here is just a quick visual of the markets pullback levels for those keeping score at home.

as was mentioned last week, the nasdaq had recently entered an official correction. the spx is just about 1% away now.

rest of the market basically in a correction (for now) however.

 

it'll be interesting to see how this correction actually plays itself out. tbh, i'm feeling a little skeptical this actually makes it into bear territory. unless it's like a flash bear like we saw during covid lol.