Stock Market Today: March 10th - 14th, 2025

Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Tuesday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Tuesday, March the 11th, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 3/11/25 - Nasdaq Drawdowns
Tue, Mar 11, 2025

After getting the pulp kicked out of them yesterday, bulls are looking to regroup this morning, and futures are marginally higher ahead of the opening bell, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both indicated up about 0.50%. Now, if you put any trust in those numbers, where have you been for the last three weeks? That’s not to say the market can’t squeak out an up day today, but lately, there has been little correlation between where futures look an hour before the opening bell versus where they finish the day.

Earlier this morning, small business sentiment from the NFIB came in weaker than expected for the second month. The only other report on today’s calendar is the January JOLTS report at 10 AM. In political news, the House is expected to vote on a continuing resolution to fund the government. While there is optimism that the vote will pass to help avoid a shutdown this weekend, the higher hurdle will be the Senate, where 60 votes are required to pass.

President Trump is also scheduled to meet with several CEOs at a meeting of the Business Roundtable today, so we’ll see what, if any, headlines come out of that meeting. The market’s main concern up until this point has been that the deteriorating levels of confidence on the part of consumers and businesses would translate into actual declines in activity. That remains to be seen in actual data, but Delta (DAL) may be showing hints of that effect starting to happen as the company cut guidance last night noting “the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty”. This morning, we're also getting similar comments from several other airlines citing weakness in Q1 but expecting a rebound later in the year. CEOs at the meeting will voice their concerns to the President, so we’ll see how much he listens.

The Nasdaq Composite moved firmly back into correction territory yesterday as the drawdown from its December high reached 13.4%. Looking at the chart of the index over the last year shows an interesting pattern where it made numerous unsuccessful attempts to break above its December high in the last few months. After failing again less than three weeks ago, the Nasdaq ran out of gas and has collapsed to its lowest level since September 11 of last year.



No one can tell you when this decline will run its course, and it will depend on several factors. The only thing we can do at times like this is look back at history for a guide to see the range of possible outcomes. The chart below shows Nasdaq drawdowns from all-time highs since its inception, with the red line showing the level of the current decline. Believe it or not, the Nasdaq has been further from an all-time high than it currently is on 49% of all trading days, a lot of which were during the dot-com bust. That’s one extreme period we all hope is in the cards!

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Tuesday, March 11th, 2025.

 

whelp, it looks like with the collapse to 5530 this afternoon the spx has now joined in with the naz and rut in correction territory off -10% from ATH.

that being said, this still all feels very orderly to me. i think what would make me personally feel a little more confident in getting in for a meaningful bounce would be once we see that washout capitulation in the overall market. maybe see the vix spike it into the 30s and 40s. we still haven’t seen this as of yet.

at some point we will get a nice bounce just from being so overextended on the downside. nothing moves in straight lines forever.

let’s see what happens here, but perhaps 5500 could be an interesting level i’d be eyeing for a meaningful bounce. we shall see if it even gets there.

 

btw, @stock1234 was meaning to ask you this yesterday but forgot — are you still able to access this site from your PC? i ask again because i recently had someone from another site tell me that this forum is blocked for them at their work and so it’s had me a little on edge and nervous that maybe malwarebytes and/or avast have again blocked this site for you which would be pretty devastating for me to hear if they did. let me know whenever you can get a chance to check. thx as always.

 

Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Hump Day to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Wednesday, March the 12th, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 3/12/25 - Going the Other Direction
Wed, Mar 12, 2025

Can we squeeze out a positive day in the market? The S&P 500 finished the day down 0.76% yesterday, but it almost seemed like a positive day in some ways. That’s how miserable the last three weeks have been for bulls! This morning, US futures were firmly in the green heading into the February CPI report. That report came in weaker than expected, providing a further boost- at least for now.

78 years ago today, President Harry Truman asked Congress to appropriate $400 million to provide economic, military, and political assistance to democratic countries facing the threat of communist forces. His proclamation set in motion the journey of the US on the path from isolationism to a leader on the global stage, taking an active role in pushing back against the growth of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Whether the US became too active in global affairs in the ensuing eight decades is up for debate. However, whatever direction US foreign policy has headed over the last eighty years, it appears to be going the other way now.

Focusing more on the short-term, the S&P 500 peaked three weeks ago today. In the 14 trading days since then, the S&P 500 has declined 9.3%, and all eleven sectors have posted declines. On the downside, just three sectors - Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary - are underperforming the S&P 500. Health Care has held up better than any other sector with a decline of less than 1%, but Real Estate and Consumer Staples have also held up relatively well.



With a decline of nearly 15%, the Consumer Discretionary sector has been the worst performing sector in the market, and the bulk of that decline has been the result of mega-cap stocks in the sector like Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon.com (AMZN). These declines have pushed the sector’s margin of underperformance versus the S&P 500 over the last three weeks to historical extremes.

The chart below shows the 15-day performance spread between the Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 since 1990. Just recently, it had underperformed the S&P 500 by over eight percentage points, which was an extreme reached just a handful of other times in the last 35 years. As extreme as the underperformance has been in the last three weeks, it has mostly been a reversal of the extreme outperformance the sector experienced late last year.