Stock Market Today: March 31st - April 4th, 2025

Welcome to the trading week of March 31st!

Wall Street sell-off deepens on inflation worries, Dow closes 700 points lower



Stocks sold off Friday, pressured by growing uncertainty on U.S. trade policy as well as a more grim outlook on inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 715.80 points, or 1.69%, at 41,583.90. The S&P 500 shed 1.97% to 5,580.94, ending the week down for the fifth time in the last six weeks. The Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.7% to settle at 17,322.99.

Shares of several technology giants dropped, putting pressure on the broader market. Google-parent Alphabet lost 4.9%, while Meta and Amazon each shed 4.3%.

This week, the S&P 500 lost 1.53%, while the 30-stock Dow shed 0.96%. The Nasdaq declined by 2.59%.

Stocks took a leg lower on Friday after the University of Michigan’s final read on consumer sentiment for March reflected the highest long-term inflation expectations since 1993.

Friday’s core personal consumption expenditures price index also came out hotter-than-expected, rising 2.8% in February and reflecting a 0.4% increase for the month, stoking concerns about persistent inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective numbers of 2.7% and 0.3%. Consumer spending accelerated 0.4% for the month, below the 0.5% forecast, according to fresh data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

“The market is getting squeezed by both sides. There is uncertainty around next week’s reciprocal tariffs hitting the major exporting sectors like tech alongside concerns about a weakening consumer facing higher prices hitting areas like discretionary,” said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X.

Helfstein added, however, that the news on inflation and consumer spending “was not that bad” and could simply represent a hiccup in near-term sentiment as investors struggle to understand the Trump administration’s new policies.

“Despite today’s sell-off and broader market volatility of the past few weeks, there have not been big inflows into money markets. It seems like a lot of investors are trying to ride this out,” he said.

The latest inflation report comes amid a flurry of tariff announcements from the White House, which have roiled the market in recent weeks. Investors are looking ahead to April 2, when President Donald Trump is expected to announce further tariff plans, for further clarity.

On Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told Trump that the Canadian government will implement retaliatory tariffs following Wednesday’s announcements. Bloomberg earlier reported that the European Union is identifying concessions it could make to Trump’s administration to reduce the reciprocal tariffs from the U.S.

Trump earlier this week announced a 25% tariff on “all cars that are not made in the United States,” a decision that hurt auto stocks and raised concerns of an economic slowdown.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:


S&P Sectors End of Week:


Major Indices End of Week:


Major Futures Markets End of Week:


Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

 

Last Day of Q1 Tends to Shine on Small Caps & Tech

Over the past 35 years since 1990 the last trading day of Q1 has experienced mixed trading most likely due to end-of-quarter portfolio restructuring. DJIA is down 21 of 35 with an average loss of –0.23%. S&P is down 19 of 35 with an average loss of –0.04%. However, Russell 2000 is up 26 of 35 with an average gain of 0.33% and NASDAQ is up 20 of 35 with an average gain of 0.20%.

Before today’s declines, (as of March 27 close), DJIA was down 0.6% year-to-date and S&P 500 was off 3.2% while NASDAQ was down 7.8% and Russell 2000 was off 7.4%. If bargain hunters are responsible for Small Cap and Tech strength on the last day of Q1, year-to-date performance suggests a potential repeat on Monday.

7 Policy Mistakes That Could Undermine Our Bullish Policy Outlook Updated


“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip

Back on January 3rd, to mark the swearing in of the 119th Congress, we shared seven risks to our bullish policy outlook. That was still 17 days before inauguration day. Now we’ve seen the new administration’s policies gel for a little over two months and we’ve learned a lot since then, so we thought it was time for an update.

Two quick items for context before we dive in. Keep in mind that our sole focus when discussing policy is its impact on markets. Markets aren’t the arbiter of good and bad policy, and our aim isn’t to evaluate policy broadly. In fact, if we tried to that, we think we would do our job less well. Letting politics influence investing decisions rarely goes well.

Second, while we’re focusing on policy risks here, we do think there still are policy opportunities. In general, lower taxes, deregulation, higher fiscal deficits, and (although at risk) lower interest rates are all policies that tend to have a positive impact on corporate profits, which in turn supports stock gains. The sequence of policy (tariffs and DOGE first) has pushed opportunities back. But there are deadlines that mean there will be a major push for a large fiscal package by the end of the year. Most key provisions of the 2017 Tax Custs and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire at the end of 2025 (although not the lower corporate tax rate), confronting Congress with the prospect of a fiscal cliff with mid-terms less than a year away. While new legislation will be complex and narrow majorities in the House and Senate leave Republicans little room for error, the legislation can be passed under the “reconciliation” process, which does not require a filibuster-proof supermajority in the Senate.

Overall, the balance between risks and opportunities has shifted since January 3 with risks rising and some opportunities fading. We underestimated the depth of the Trump administration’s commitment to tariffs, but it’s important to keep in mind that final policy is still evolving. DOGE was an unforeseen risk, and while we have been impressed with the energy to reduce government bloat, the process has at times seemed reckless and not even entirely aligned with achieving its stated goal. But perhaps most of all, we think the opportunity to unleash “animal spirits” has been largely squandered, as judged by consumer sentiment, business sentiment, and the markets themselves. We did see a post-election surge in sentiment (and markets), but that has since largely evaporated. At the same time, the change in sentiment has had little to no impact on hard data yet, including earnings. Sentiment matters only if it shifts behavior.

The divide between hard and soft data isn’t new. The Biden administration was also faced with waves of negative sentiment as inflation reached generational highs in 2022, but real GDP has averaged 2.9% annualized over the last 10 quarters and 3.2% over the last four years. That compares favorably not only to the first Trump administration (2.8% excluding 2020 to take out the impact of the pandemic) but also the Obama administration (2.0%) and the eight years under George W. Bush (1.9%). Whatever you think of Joe Biden’s capacity to lead, the Biden administration has been the steward of the best economy since Bill Clinton, although that’s far from saying they were responsible for it.

On to the topic at hand. Here is our reevaluation of potential policy mistakes that could undermine our bullish policy outlook.

Risk 1: Tariffs Push Inflation Higher

Change since January 3rd: Higher Risk

Risk Assessment: High

Immediate Market Impact or Slow Burn?: Immediate Market Impact

Tariffs are coming, but as we’ve already seen, the specific policy can change overnight and we still don’t know exactly what the policy will be so we still need to take a wait-and-see approach. Just take tariffs on Mexico and Canada. On January 20, (inauguration day) the president said tariffs would be implemented on February 1. Then it became February 4. Then they were delayed by another month. Then later another month to April 2, but the president then reversed course and said March 4. On March 3, Commerce Secretary Harold Lutnick said it’s possible the tariffs won’t go into effect, but the president then said they would that same day. Tariffs provisionally went into effect March 4 but were then delayed on March 6 to April 2. Have you followed all that? And that’s just Mexico and Canada.

Thus far, tariffs on China have been raised to 20%; a 25% tariff has been implemented on all steel and aluminum imports; the 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada right now is still scheduled to go into effect on April 2; and nebulously defined “reciprocal tariffs” are also supposed to go into effect April 2.

We know already that markets are sensitive to tariff news, as it was the main driver behind the February 19 – March 13 S&P 500 Index correction, although we’ve seen a nice rebound since. We also know that the policy uncertainty created by tariffs is having an impact on Federal Reserve policy and businesses.



At the same time, the lack of clarity on tariffs makes it hard to gauge the longer-term impact. We have seen increases in both actual measures of inflation and business and consumer inflation surveys. We’ve also seen a rise in imports (which is a negative in GDP calculations) as importers try to get ahead of tariffs (which has contributed to higher prices), but that particular negative impact is likely to unwind. It’s also important to keep in mind that tariffs have a one-time impact on price levels but do not directly contribute to prices continuing to climb higher, and in that sense don’t contribute to inflation. (Although we also know consumers are sensitive to price levels too.)

Overall, tariff policy remains a meaningful risk and more significant than we originally expected.



Risk 2: The Federal Reserve Keeps Policy Too Tight

Change since January 3rd: Higher Risk

Risk Assessment: High

Immediate Market Impact or Slow Burn?: Immediate Market Impact


This one is intimately tied to tariff uncertainty, which has handcuffed the Federal Reserve. The current median forecast by the Fed is for two rate cuts in 2025 while the market-implied expectation is just shy of 2.5. For an in depth look at last weeks Fed meeting see Carson’s VP, Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese’s excellent analysis in “The Fed Is Stuck Waiting, and That’s a Problem.” There was some market upside from the last meeting, but only in that the Fed raised their inflation expectations without lowering the expected number of rate cuts. At the same time, the Fed is not in a hurry to cut amid a lot of uncertainty, and that creates on-going stress that could weigh on growth for cyclical areas of the economy.

Remember, a fed funds rate target of just 2.25 – 2.50% nearly broke the economy in 2018 – 2019, something President Trump correctly pointed out at the time, and low rates, even after some tightening, were still a major tailwind. Well, right now the target fed funds rate target is 4.25 – 4.50%, two full percentage point higher. The economy has been incredibly resilient despite high rates, but cyclical sectors, including housing, small businesses, and manufacturing, have been under pressure and the labor market, while still strong, has exhibited some underlying risk, although it remains stable for now. Productivity growth, which is supported by a tight labor market and has been an important contributor to recent growth and may also be damaged by policy that is too tight if it leads to a rise in layoffs.

We think the current expected slower path of rate cuts is very unlikely to push the economy into a recession on its own, but it will make the economy more sensitive to other shocks.

Risk 3: Unpredictability Restrains Animal Spirits

Change since January 3rd: Higher Risk

Risk Assessment: High

Immediate Market Impact or Slow Burn?: Immediate Market Impact


Unpredictability is part of Trump’s MO and he is capable of deploying it very effectively. But while unpredictability can be powerful when negotiating, it can create a difficult environment for businesses. We’ve already seen this come through in increased mentions of tariffs in earnings reports and surveys such as CNBC’s surveys of business CFOs. Companies put a lot of capital at risk based on expectations of future profits, and generally want policy clarity. Businesses also do not want a president who interferes with capital markets in a fit of pique. An uncertain policy environment can make it harder to do business, although sometimes it does also present opportunities. Initially viewed as a small risk, it’s clear uncertainty around some policies has weighed on business sentiment. Every policy environment has its element of unpredictability. But with the last Trump administration, for example, we did see tariff policy uncertainty weighed heavily on business investment in 2018-2019 and put a dent in the expected supply-side impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The Fed has cited four areas of policy uncertainty weighing on its outlook, trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Businesses are facing similar challenges. Some of these (fiscal policy, regulation) continue to have likely eventual upside for businesses, but the uncertainty still makes it hard to do business.

Note that policy uncertainty is often not a negative for markets because markets tend to be forward looking and high or peak uncertainty could occur near market lows. But the uncertainty represented here is more focused on the ongoing impact on the ability to do business that has not fully taken hold rather than the broad sense of uncertainty that has already led to economic disruption. September 2008 or March 2020, other times when uncertainty has been high according to a measure shared by the Fed, aren’t really analogous to the current situation. Where it may be somewhat analogous is that policy uncertainty is so high right now that the actual impact as unlikely to be as bad as expected.




*NEW*

Risk 4: DOGE Inadvertently Breaks Something

Change since January 3rd: Higher Risk

Risk Assessment: Moderate

Immediate Market Impact or Slow Burn?: Slow Burn

From a market perspective, it’s hard to gauge the economic impact (and eventual market impact) of DOGE. While some cuts have been dramatic, given the scale of an entire economy it’s really the knock-on effects that would cause a true economic disruption. There are areas of the economy that are more vulnerable, for example the Washington, DC area and industries that rely most heavily on research grants (e.g. medical research). There’s also some risk, for example, of challenges in the disbursement of Social Security or other disruptions to the smooth functioning of government that can have an impact on people’s lives, but again that’s unlikely to matter a lot compared to the scale of the entire economy. Really, in itself the political risk is larger than the policy risk. But the aggressive cuts do introduce “known unknowns” that require some caution and add to the general environment of policy uncertainty.


Risk 5: Internal Division within the Republican Party Delays or Limits Policy Implementation

Change since January 3rd: Unchanged

Risk Assessment: Moderate

Immediate Market Impact or Slow Burn?: Immediate Potential Impact but Not Until Later

This is a policy risk that has a positive side. We noted during the election that markets tend to like mixed government. The spirit of compromise tends to get us better policy and helps avoid the ideological excesses of both parties. But we won’t have mixed government in 2025 and ideological excesses are making themselves felt.

However, the majorities in Congress are narrow. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, as well as the tie-breaking vote by Vice President Vance. Republicans currently have a 218 – 213 majority in the House with four seats vacant, two formerly held by Republicans and two formerly held by Democrats.

While we did not get divided government in November, there are some ways in which narrow majorities keep at least some of the spirit of divided government. Republicans will need their own moderates AND their most hardline conservatives to vote yes to pass policy. There could be a cushion should Freedom Caucus members hold up a bill, since some Democrats could be pulled on board to support a bill if they believe it is in their interest, but it would require some compromise.

Narrow majorities keep more checks and balances in place, but they also increase the possibility of legislative chaos and will make it more difficult to pass any bill that doesn’t have broad consensus among Republicans. Significant delays that disappoint policy expectations could lead markets to become impatient with Congressional infighting. The key date here is the end of the year deadline when major provisions of the TCJA sunset. Republicans are also well aware that the president’s party has lost House seats in mid-term years in 20 of 22 mid-term elections since 1938.

Risk 6: Immigration Policy Stunts Economic Growth

Change Since January 3: Unchanged

Risk Assessment: Moderate

Immediate Market Impact or Slow Burn?: Very Slow Burn

In my view, this is the most underrated risk but still secondary to those listed above it when it comes to the absolute level of risk. Clearly there are some genuine problems with current immigration policy. But the extent to which the resilience of the US economy depends on its ability to attract and absorb global labor is often underestimated. In fact, I would say the two key factors that have led to the structural advantage the US has over other developed economies is a more business-friendly overall policy environment, including labor market flexibility, and its history of acting as a destination of choice for immigrants.

It’s hard to determine the level at which tighter immigration policy becomes a genuine risk, and before it becomes a risk there certainly may be areas where reforms would provide benefits. The aim here is not to determine what the right immigration policy should be, but just to highlight that at some point tight policy can start to impact the economy and markets.

Thus far, the rate of deportations seems to have accelerated only modestly from the Biden administration, although the Trump administration has raised the media profile of deportations and some disputes in the courts have received a lot of attention. However, the numbers are difficult to gauge because the Trump administration has ended the regular reporting on deportations by ICE and the Department of Homeland Security.

However, net immigrant in-flows have fallen dramatically according to estimates from Goldman Sachs, from an annualized pace of 1.7 million to 0.7 million based on data from December and February. That will have an impact on job growth, but it will also lower the job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate steady because immigrants also contribute to unemployment. But even with a steady unemployment rate, fewer jobs added will mean slower aggregate income growth, which is the primary driver of US economic growth.

Here are just a few of the reasons immigration policy could pose a risk from an economic perspective:

-If the current level of flow of earners falls due to immigration policy and the chilling effect on new immigration, there’s a direct impact on GDP. A dollar of lost income is a dollar of lost GDP. Policy that leads working immigrants to leave the US, or choose not to come in the first place, is the economic equivalent of exporting U.S. GDP growth to the rest of the world.

-There is a steep implicit regulatory burden on business from tight immigration policy, both by restricting their access to workers and making the cost of labor higher. Elon Musk’s and Vivek Ramaswamy’s initial support for expanding H-1B1 visas due to their contributions to US technology leadership was poorly received in some MAGA circles.

-A more restricted labor pool also has the potential to drive wages higher, posing some additional risk for inflation. This effect may be stronger with the prime age participation rate already near a record high. We think this risk is fairly small, but not non-existent.

Immigration reform is a positive goal, but also comes with some risks. How high those risks are depends on actual policy. It would take a fairly large mistake to have enough of an impact on the economy to weigh on markets, but the potential for a large mistake is non-trivial.

Risk 7: Fed Independence

Change Since January 3: Unchanged

Risk Assessment: Low

Immediate Market Impact or Slow Burn?: Immediate if it were to occur

I would consider this a very small risk, but with the consequences of a misstep potentially large. Trump has already put some pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates, although I would say he’s been fairly restrained. Comments on Fed policy in and of itself aren’t a problem. There are mechanisms that help maintain Fed independence. But if there is an effort to overstep or to appoint a loyal and partisan Fed chair when Jerome Powell (himself a Trump appointee) steps down in May 2026, markets will respond. This one is unlikely to be a slow burn. If Trump oversteps, I would expect the market response to be unmistakable. If Trump floats test balloons that cause market jitters but can easily be stepped back, it’s not an issue. But a genuine threat to Fed independence that cannot be walked back could be a problem. This may also arise through efforts to call into question the constitutionality of independent agencies, which is a potential stepping stone to removing Fed independence.

Interestingly, Fed policy (although not necessarily Fed independence) is a place where Trump’s inclination (lower rates) is most directly in conflict with Project 2025, which wanted more emphasis on the inflation side of the Fed’s dual mandate and in fact recommended removing the “maximum employment” mandate altogether. There are other areas where they are more aligned, including potentially limiting Fed independence, but I would characterize Project 2025 as generally hawkish on Fed policy while Trump is quite dovish, especially when he’s in office.

*to be removed*

Risk 8: Deregulation Clashes with the Supreme Court’s Chevron Reversal

Change Since January 3: Lower

Risk Assessment: Low

Immediate Market Impact or Slow Burn?: Very Slow Burn

If I kept this one, I would expand it to slowing policy implementation more generally. But even this I don’t see as a risk directly to markets. Trump has been testing policy limits so actively that the courts have been busy, and making the implications of Chevron central in that context was short sighted. Still, the net effect of policy working its way through the courts typically has little to no immediate market impact, since it’s part of the normal functioning of the federal judiciary to take up these kinds of questions. There are some potential issues that could be market moving if they found their way up to the Supreme Court (for example Fed independence or election-related decisions). But outside of that or a genuine constitutional crisis, I doubt what happens in the courts will have a direct takeaway for markets. Should we review all these policy risks again in the future, this one is coming out.

There you have it, seven policy risks that we’ll be watching for in 2025, with tariff unpredictability and the Fed’s rate decisions still the most meaningful, but a few others to keep an eye on as well. Our view on policy and “animal spirits” in our Outlook 2025 was that there was the potential for there to be an added tailwind from animal spirits, but our overall view was not dependent on it. The opportunity for the potential tailwind has not been entirely lost, depending what happens with the tax bill, but it hangs by a thread and disruptions have been larger than expected. We have informally downgraded our GDP expectations with the potential upside we saw likely off the table. We are probably looking right now at something more like 2% GDP with risks more to the downside (but not recessionary) for 2025 versus something more like 2.5% with risks to the upside when we made our initial assessment. But we will continue to monitor both risks and opportunities for how they are playing out.

Country ETF Dividends
Thu, Mar 27, 2025

It's been two weeks since the S&P 500 (SPY) put in its March 13 low. Since then, SPY has risen 3.2% which is slightly above the 2.6% average gain of the ETFs tracking the stock markets of 22 major global economies. As shown below, topping the list and outperforming in that span have been emerging market countries like Brazil (EWZ) and India (INDA) which are both up well over 6.5%. Meanwhile, only two stocks are meaningfully lower in that time: Taiwan (EWT) and Hong Kong (EWH). Of those, EWT is much more closely resembling the US over a longer time frame. Since the S&P 500's February 19 peak, it is down 7.2% which is essentially tied with Taiwan for the worst performance since then. While those are the two biggest losers, most other country ETFs have moved higher to build upon what has been impressive strength year to date. Whereas the US is down low single digits this year, most other countries have in that time risen well into the double digits.



International ETFs don't only have momentum on their side, but they also offer higher yields than the US at the current moment. On a twelve trailing month basis, SPY's 1.26% yield ranks as the second lowest among these ETFs. The only one that has offered a smaller, and less than 1%, yield is India (INDA). On the whole, across all 22 ETFs, the average yield stands at 3.25%. Relative to each one's respective history, whether or not those are elevated yields vary. For example, for the S&P 500, the current yield only ranks in the 5th percentile of that 20 year range. Meanwhile, Japan's (EWJ) 2.22% yield ranks at the low-middle end of these ETFs, but is in the top decile versus EWJ's own history.

Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close – Deadline Impact Fades

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.

April is the second-best month for S&P 500 and DJIA

April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit, declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market declining 4.9% that year and 5.0% again in 2024. April is now the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971.

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.


10 Baggers and 100 Baggers
Tue, Mar 25, 2025

Yesterday was the 25th anniversary of the S&P 500's closing high during the Dot Com Bubble. After rallying 14% in the month leading up to its peak on 3/24/2000, the S&P would go on to fall 25% over the next year and 49% at its low point in October 2002.



Had you bought the S&P 500 at the peak on 3/24/2000, you would have felt like the worst market timer in the world a year later. But eventually the market recovered, and if you rode it out and held through today, you would still have generated annualized gains of more than 7.5% if you bought on the day of the Dot Com Bubble peak. As the saying goes: time heals.

Within the Russell 1,000 (a larger large-cap index than the S&P 500), just over half of the stocks in the index now were around 25 years ago. These stocks have posted an average total return of more than 2,600% since 3/24/00. Just under 300 stocks in the index have been "10-baggers" in the last 25 years, meaning they've gone up 10x. But there are also nineteen stocks in the index that have been "100-baggers" since 3/24/00, meaning they've gone up at least 10,000%.

Below is a list of these nineteen "100-baggers." For each stock, we provide its percentage change since 3/24/00, how much a $1,000 investment in the stock on 3/24/00 would be worth today, and a brief one-sentence description of what the company does.

While you may think that Tech stocks would dominate the list of biggest winners over the last 25 years, that's not the case. Of the nineteen "100-baggers," just four are in the Technology sector, while there are five Industrials and five Consumer Discretionary stocks.

The biggest winner by far, though, is a Consumer Staples stock: gas-station/convenience store energy-drink maker Monster Beverage (MNST). A $1,000 investment in MNST on 3/24/00 would be worth -- wait for it -- $1.275 million today! That's double the return of the second-best performer -- NVIDIA (NVDA).

Notably, Apple (AAPL) is the second-best performing Tech stock behind NVDA with a gain of 20,821%. It's the stocks that sit just above and below Apple that are more interesting. Just above AAPL sits a farming supply retailer -- Tractor Supply (TSCO) -- with a gain of 26,036%, while an auto parts retailer -- O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) -- sits just below AAPL with a gain of 16,381%.

Below are some of the things that other 100-baggers do:

-Provides less-than-truckload freight shipping services (ODFL)

-Makes commercial and residential kitchen equipment (MIDD)

-Develops credit scoring and analytics software (FICO)

-Offers hazardous waste disposal and environmental services (CLH)

-Distributes HVAC equipment and refrigeration products (WSO)

-Provides kidney dialysis and healthcare services (DVA)

Good businesses that can execute can be found in any industry!



Along with the 25th anniversary of the Dot Com Bubble, 3/23 was the fifth anniversary of the market's low point during the COVID Crash in 2020. Along with highlighting 100-baggers over the last 25 years, below is a list of stocks that have been 10-baggers (up at least 10x) in the last five years since the COVID low.

What's most remarkable about this list is how many Energy stocks there are. Four of the five biggest winners are domestic oil and natural gas stocks: Antero Resources (AR), Targa Resources (TRGP), Matador Resources (MTDR), and Permian Resources (PR). Antero is up the most with a gain of just under 5,000%. The only non-Energy stock in the top five is bitcoin-holder MicroStrategy (MSTR), which is up 2,867% since 3/23/20.

Rounding out the top ten are video-game seller GameStop (GME), server-seller Super Micro (SMCI), energy-drink maker Celsius (CELH), AI chip-king NVIDIA (NVDA), and another oil and gas play: Ovintiv (OVV).

Other notables on the list of 10-baggers over the last five years include Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Vertiv (VRT), Dillard's (DDS), Comfort Systems (FIX), Vistra (VST), Quanta Services (PWR), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), and Broadcom (AVGO).



Stocks Rarely Peak in February and Five Other Things to Know Right Now


“If everybody is thinking alike, somebody isn’t thinking.” -General George S. Patton

Last week, we discussed how the S&P 500 officially moved into a correction, which is down 10% from the February 19th peak. We noted then that most years (even some of the best years) see volatility and scary headlines, with many of those years seeing a 10% correction at some point in the year.

So did stocks officially peak for the year on February 19th? We don’t think so and we still expect stocks to come back to new highs at some point during this year. To back this up, only twice over the past 75 years did stocks peak for the year in February. Yes, most years peak in January or December, but for many reasons we’ve noted lately (and more below), we don’t think this will be the third year stocks peak in February.



Two Reasons to Expect New Highs Later This year
We’ve pointed these two things out recently, but wanted to share them again as they are important.

If your head is spinning from being at an all-time high to down more than 10%, then you aren’t alone, as this was one of the quickest trips ever to do just that. In fact, it took only 16 trading days to achieve this dubious feat, but it turns out this isn’t really bad news.

We found six other corrections off an all-time high that took place in less than one calendar month (or about 21 trading days) and the good news is quick snapbacks are quite common. In fact, the S&P 500 has never been lower three and six months later, with an average return six months later of an extremely impressive 14.7%. Who said roller coasters weren’t fun?



We are on record that we don’t believe this one will turn into a full-fledged bear market, which means stocks won’t be down 20% or more. That right there is a reason not to sell, but assuming that is the case, we found 12 other times stocks moved from an all-time high into a correction, but didn’t fall into a bear market. Looking into this showed stocks were higher six and 12 months later every single time, with much better than average returns as well.



What I found incredible is that five of those 12 times saw stocks bottom the day they moved into a correction (which in the current case would have been Thursday, March 13th). That is way more than I would have ever expected. Will we do it again? After the rare bullish clue we recently saw (more on this below) we think there’s a chance.

Some More Good News
Some more good news and why you shouldn’t sell right now is we saw a potential buying thrust, consistent with higher prices coming. How do weak markets end? I like to say when the selling stops. Kind of obvious, but with all the negativity we’ve seen anyone who wanted to sell likely has done so, leaving only buyers. Well, the buyers showed up Friday, March 14 and Monday, March 17 as both days saw more than 90% of the components of the S&P 500 higher, a very impressive back-to-back feat. This is extremely rare but could be a clue a major low is in place or trying to form.

The last time we saw this was in early October 2022, right as that bear market was ending. You can see on the table below we’ve seen strong returns after previous buying thrusts, with the S&P 500 higher six months later 10 out of 11 times and up nearly 11% on average. This coupled with the data from above suggests the potential for better-than-expected returns over the next six months, which might surprise many investors who are positioned for the worst.



Not All Corrections Become Bear Markets
We found 13 official bear markets (down 20% from recent highs) going back to World War II, with many asking whether this could be number 14. We don’t think so, but a nice way to show this is to highlight that most corrections don’t become bear markets.

We found only 13 of the previous 39 corrections eventually turned into bear markets. Or as we like to say, all bear markets started as a correction, but not all corrections turn into a bear market.



Panic Is in the Air
We’ve noted many times the past few weeks that fear is in the air and from a contrarian point of view this could be very bullish, as nearly anyone who wanted to sell has probably sold by now. One example of this is the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey has had bears above 55% for four weeks in a row, besting the previous record of three weeks in a row that ended the week the Great Financial Crisis ended in March 2009. Yes, investors are potentially more worried now than after a generational crash and recession.

Purely anecdotal, but many investors are scared and want nothing to do with stocks. I know I’ve heard from many friends and family who share this same sentiment, as all they’ve heard in the media is how bad everything is out there.

Shoutout to Ben Carson for this find, but a recent Wall Street Journal article interviewed regular investors and the sentiment was quite negative. Below caught my attention:

For years, Yoram Ariely hadn’t touched most of his investments, preferring to ride the stock market’s ups and downs. Last Tuesday, he decided he had enough.

The 82-year-old unloaded almost half of his stock investments, fearful of the effects of President Trump’s economic agenda, and tariffs in particular. He may get rid of more still

“The decisions are changing daily,” said Ariely, a retired business owner in Longboat Key, Fla.

So we have surveys and anecdotal sentiment at extremes, but what about people who manage real money? The recent Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey showed the largest drop ever in US equity allocations last month. That’s in the chart below, but the recent monthly survey also saw the second largest decrease in global growth expectations ever, the largest increase in allocations to cash since March 2009, and the lowest allocation to US equities since June 2023.



Why a Big Drop This Year Is Still Not Likely
The last thing that’s caught my attention lately is how rare it is to see stocks down 10% for an entire calendar year. Given many investors are expecting a big down year, could it really happen? Going back the past 100 years, stocks were lower by more than 10% for the full year only 12 times (on a total return basis) and as you can see, big drops usually happen for a reason. In other words, something bad has to happen. Could something bad happen this year? Of course, but for now, we still don’t see any compelling reason to expect a major recession or any reason for something very bad to happen.

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2024-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from 52WK highs as of week ending 3.28.25-


Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices


Here are the current major indices rally levels from 52WK lows as of week ending 3.28.25-

 

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

 

Stock Market Analysis Video for March 28th, 2025
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/30/25
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

StockForumers! Come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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StockBoards Weekly Stock Picking Contest & S&P Sentiment Poll (3/31-4/4) <-- click there to cast your weekly market direction vote and stock picks for this coming week ahead!

Daily S&P Sentiment Poll for Monday (3/31) <-- click there to cast your daily market direction vote for this coming Tuesday ahead!

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It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
($PVH $CAG $GRRR $LPRO $RCAT $BB $RH $MVST $NNOX $REKR $WKHS $CTSO $GES $NCNO $TTGT $LW $PENG $PRGS $UNF $MSM $BSET $AYI $FTCI $BNGO $DUOT $LNZA $LOAR $PRPH $BLRX $CLIR $DARE $BCLI $VNRX $WPRT $SNYR $SPIR $ANGO $LNN $SLP $RGP $FC $LFCR $TLPH $VERO $XPON $BHST $SPWH $ACOG $AQMS $CWD)


If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

• Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning March 31st, 2025 <-- click there to view!

 

Top of the morning StocksForumers! Happy Monday to all of you and welcome to the final trading day of the month and quarter and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are over an hour into the US cash market open.

GLTA on this Monday, March the 31st, 2025!

 

Here are today's economic calendar events:

 

Here are today's analyst stock upgrades & downgrades:

 

Here are this morning's pre-market earnings results:

 

Morning Lineup - 3/31/25 - New Lows?
Mon, Mar 31, 2025

If Christopher Walken was right, why do the markets feel so terrible? You’ve seen all the different ways of measuring the extreme levels of uncertainty in the markets, and it only seems to get worse with each passing day. After President Trump spent much of last week downplaying the degree of tariffs that would be announced on April 2nd, so-called “Liberation Day”, last night the Wall Street Journal reported that the Administration is now re-considering an across-the-board 20% tariff. So, if you thought you had no idea what was going on, you’re not alone. Adding to that, if you think we’ll suddenly start to see certainty come Wednesday, good luck with that.

Equity futures are sharply lower to start the week even after Friday’s plunge. While the rest of the world appeared to have avoided America’s cold, that’s not the case this morning. Europe’s STOXX 600 is down close to 2% relative to Friday’s close and nearly 6% from its YTD high. Asian stocks were also lower overnight. The Nikkei plunged over 4% and is now down 12% from its high in December.

S&P 500 futures are down just about 1% this morning, and that puts the lows from mid-March into play as the current level of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is right between its intraday low ($549.68) and its closing low ($551.42) from March 13th. If the intraday lows from that day don’t hold, the next potential level of support is the post-Labor Day lows.

 

Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Monday, March 31st, 2025.